The Fed Just Changed Everything For Crypto, Says | Crypto News
The Federal Reserve’s first fee cut of 2025 has landed—25 foundation factors on September 17—and, in Trader Mayne’s telling, that removes the last macro “X-factor” hanging over the crypto market. In a video analysis posted the same day, the veteran price-action trader argued that with the coverage transfer now in the rear-view mirror, crypto can “just focus on the charts,” sketching a roadmap in which Bitcoin posts one more leg greater into new all-time highs before a pullback ushers in a basic altseason blow-off. “We had FOMC today and the rates got cut finally… It’s 25 basis points,” he said. “Now the market’s going to digest it.”
Where Is Bitcoin Price Going Next?
The coverage backdrop he’s reacting to is simple: the FOMC lowered the fed funds goal vary by a quarter level to 4.00%–4.25% on Sept. 17, with Chair Jerome Powell describing the transfer as a risk-management response to weakening labor dynamics and leaving the door open to further easing this yr. The resolution drew an 11–1 vote, with newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a bigger, 50 bps cut—an unusually hawkish dissent in a dovish direction—while the Board’s implementation word reset key administered charges efficient Sept. 18. Markets read the assertion and projections as signaling scope for additional cuts into year-end.
From right here, Mayne’s framework is unapologetically technical. He characterizes Bitcoin’s most current upswing as corrective relative to the prior impulse and expects price to “push above the mid-range” toward a vary high around $120,000–$121,000, where he’ll watch for rejection at a higher-time-frame confluence outlined by a weekly swing-failure sample (SFP) and an H12 breaker.
If momentum stalls there, he plans to short into a washout to clear out built-up leverage—“HYPE made another all-time high today. PUMP has tripled in the last two weeks… there’s some leverage in the system”—and then buy the dip for what he calls the last parabolic leg of the cycle. “Any sort of dip on BTC, I want to be looking for a long,” he said, including that a shallow retest in the $110,000–$111,000 space or a deeper sweep of current lows would both be acceptable springboards if the rebound is decisive.
If, instead, price grinds through the $120,000 s with no indicators of exhaustion, Mayne says he has “no problem” flipping to breakout longs above the all-time high once strength is confirmed intraday—an method that mirrors his playbook from prior expansions (“Once this thing broke out aggressively… you’re looking for longs”). He emphasizes sequence over prediction: the short he’s eyeing is counter-trend—“a pullback in an uptrend”—and the prime goal stays to place for the next impulsive advance.
When Will The Crypto Market Top?
Timing-wise, he situates the potential cycle top in This autumn 2025 or Q1 2026, describing a sample in which Bitcoin’s ultimate vertical leg into the $150,000 to $180,000 area is adopted by distribution while altcoins reprice greater—the archetypal altseason.
“This parabolic leg I think would be the last leg of the bull run,” he said, before outlining notional alt targets constant with a late-cycle melt-up: Ethereum $5,000–$7,000, Solana $300–$500, Dogecoin $0.50–$0.70. The mechanics, as he narrates them: a last BTC push, a corrective wash, a V-shaped reclaim of the 2024 ATH “very quickly,” then This autumn “mania” with breadth shifting to large-cap alts as Bitcoin distributes.
The technical scaffolding behind that view leans on ideas acquainted to discretionary price-action merchants. Weekly SFPs (failed breaks of prior extremes) set the lure line at vary edges; H12 breakers and order blocks body high-probability response zones; and fair-value gaps information where liquidity vacuums would possibly fill during a corrective flush.
On construction, he insists the weekly pattern stays up, so any short is tactical and any deeper dip must resolve in a swift V-bottom and reclaim of the previous highs to keep the cyclical script intact. His invalidation is equally clear: “If we spend any significant time back below [the 2024 all-time high], it’s really bad… I’m probably going to reassess my thoughts.”
Macro, in Mayne’s view, now recedes to the background. The fee cut could have helped pull ahead some September strength—“you could argue… the up move we’ve seen on Bitcoin… is in anticipation of this rate cut”—but with the choice made and Powell hinting there “could be another one… there could be two,” his emphasis is squarely on execution: wait for price to commerce into the $120,000s and signal weak point for the clean counter-trend short; or, absent weak point, wait for the breakout continuation and trip it. Either method, he’s specific about the north star for the approaching weeks: “Focus on Bitcoin… Any sort of dip on BTC, I want to be looking for a long… Then altseason.”
At press time, BTC traded at $117,176.
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