Bitcoin Enters Historic Buying Zone, Indicator | Crypto News
Reports say a fashionable risk metric has fallen into territory that, in the past, lined up with major shopping for alternatives for Bitcoin.
The short-term Sharpe Ratio has plunged to about -38.38, a stage that markets not often see. Traders who comply with on-chain and statistical alerts level out that related extremes confirmed up around the lows of 2015, 2019, and late 2022 — moments that later noticed sizable recoveries, CryptoQuant verified writer Moreno said.
Sharpe Ratio Hits Unusual Low
The Sharpe Ratio measures returns against volatility. When it drops far below zero over short stretches, it means traders have been taking heavy losses relative to how wildly the market is transferring.
A -38.38 studying is excessive. Reports notice this variety of studying has occurred only 4 instances in Bitcoin’s historical past, and each time adopted a stretch of high stress and weak sentiment. That sample suggests promoting can exhaust itself even when the charts look bleak.
Bitcoin’s Short-Term Sharpe Ratio Hit a Level Historically Reserved For Generational Buying Zones
“The arrows in the chart illustrate this clearly: each prior extreme negative reading was followed by violent recoveries to new highs.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/nxFBUgHxi9
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 19, 2026
Historical Lows And Recoveries
Past cycles give a method to read the signal. Around $287 in 2015, and close to $4,100 in early 2019, and again around $15,000 in late 2022, risk measures and temper have been at their worst before money flowed back in.
Based on reviews from on-chain analysts, those moments shared common traits: many merchants had capitulated, quantity was skinny, and volatility spiked. Yet those situations later coincided with multi-month rallies that erased large components of the prior losses.
Bitcoin Price Action
Bitcoin’s price has been delicate to headlines recently. It slid under psychological ranges as risk belongings weakened, and trading has been muted. Markets reacted to diplomatic rows and conflict-related tales, inflicting greater strikes in skinny markets.
Sometimes BTC held up and disregarded sharp risk-off flows. Other instances it fell additional, particularly when liquidity dried up. That stop-and-start habits has left short-term merchants cautious, while longer-term holders watch for indicators that promoting momentum is fading.
Clear Coast Ahead?
Based on reviews and the data, this signal is just not a magic ticket. External forces — such as tightening liquidity or a macro shock — can keep downward strain longer than statistical patterns alone would predict.
The current 50% fall from an all-time high close to $126,200 in October 2025 to about $65,700 reveals a lot of the transfer is already behind us, but it doesn’t rule out more pain. Risk management issues. Position sizing and clear entry plans will help anybody who decides to act around these ranges.
Featured image from Anne Connelly – Medium, chart from TradingView
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