Crockett Surges to 12-Point Lead in Senate Primary

Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30) isn’t just main in the Texas Democrat U.S. Senate main anymore. She’s pulling away, and she’s doing it as early voting is already underway.

The latest statewide survey, performed Feb. 2 through Feb. 16 among doubtless Democrat main voters, exhibits the Dallas congresswoman increasing her edge over state Rep. James Talarico. Early voting started Feb. 17 and runs through Feb. 27 forward of the March main, which suggests this shift is going on while ballots are being forged.

“Crockett leads Talarico 56 percent to 44 percent among likely Democratic primary voters statewide.” 

Twelve factors.

That just isn’t a wobble. That is motion.

Late-January polling had her up by 8 factors after a stretch where the race regarded tighter. The trajectory since then has been in one direction.

The broader polling average tells the same story. This just isn’t a one-survey spike. It is a widening margin.

Inside Democrat circles, the tone is already shifting. One longtime get together strategist posted this week that DSCC sources imagine Crockett is “likely winning,” including that an assault line against her opponent “worked.” Whether that is spin or confidence, it’s not the language of a marketing campaign anticipating the race to tighten.

As I’ve said since being in DC a few weeks in the past, DSCC sources inform me they’re resigned to Crockett doubtless successful. The Colin Allard assault labored.

Jasmine Crockett leads James Talarico by double digits in Senate Democratic main, ballot finds https://t.co/cdTgNTNoU9

— dan turrentine (@danturrentine) February 25, 2026

On the Republican facet, it appears to be like very different. The GOP main between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn stays tight, with single-digit spreads and aggressive motion relying on the ballot. That race is still unsettled, with neither candidate breaking away in a method that indicators clear consolidation among Republican voters or a settled direction inside the get together.

The Democrat main is more and more not.

Primaries often tighten as voting begins. They don’t sometimes widen. Moving from a single-digit edge to a 12-point margin while ballots are being forged suggests Democrat voters are making a determination, not hesitating.

Crockett has not constructed her profile by enjoying it protected. Over the past yr, she has leaned into sharp exchanges, viral moments, and snappy soundbites that commonly spill past Texas politics. In latest immigration flashpoints, Democrat lawmakers used comparable framing, condemning federal enforcement actions before all the main points had been clear, only for later info to destroy the narrative. That posture has not harm her in this main. If something, it seems to be half of what is consolidating help around her.

Read More: Jasmine Crockett’s Policy Page Finally Drops—and It’s a Hilarious Trainwreck

New: Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett Officially Launches U.S. Senate Bid

While Republicans are still competing for place, Democrats seem more and more snug with theirs.

Polls are snapshots. They always are.

But widening margins during early voting usually are not meaningless noise. They recommend consolidation. And consolidation this early just isn’t unintended.

Editor’s Note: President Trump is main America into the “Golden Age” as Democrats strive desperately to stop it.  

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