The Electoral Math Says Good Luck – RedState

President Isaac Herzog has tasked Yashar get together chief and Benjamin Netanyahu nemesis Gadi Eisenkot with forming Israel’s next authorities after the October 27, 2026 election left both the opposition and Netanyahu’s bloc short of a Knesset majority; see Israel Election Results: Netanyahu Bloc at 53 Seats, Arab Parties Surge to 19 – RedState. The former IDF chief of employees and chief of the Yashar get together secured the first mandate after receiving suggestions from events representing 67 lawmakers, in contrast with 46 for Netanyahu.

However, nothing is ever as straightforward as it appears.

Math is hard for most of us, even in the best of occasions. When the maths includes the five-dimensional chess of creating a governing majority in a 120-seat Knesset from 11 events, some of whom hate each other, it appears insurmountable.

With 100% of votes counted, the ultimate outcomes from Israel’s election show the Netanyahu-led coalition with 53 seats, the Jewish opposition events with 48 seats, and 19 seats for the 2 Arab events. A short thread summarizing some of the most notable outcomes: 🧵 https://t.co/NdzvhW1xe8

— Gabriel Epstein (@GabrielEpsteinX) October 29, 2026

🇮🇱2026 FINAL Election Results Dashboard (Pending Verification) https://t.co/6ul2SCeiTA

— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) October 29, 2026

Eisenkot’s four-party Jewish opposition alliance — Yashar (21 seats), Together (12 seats), Yisrael Beiteinu (7 seats), and The Democrats (8 seats) — holds 48 seats. Netanyahu’s right-wing and spiritual bloc holds 53 seats. Arab events (Ra’am and the Joint List) received a report 19 seats. Neither facet has the 61 seats it wants on its own. 

Making issues more tough, Eisenkot has tried to thread the needle between mobilizing dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s governance and showing to be considerably traitorous as wars with Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and often the Houthis rage. His resolution was to publicly prioritize a “national emergency government” constructed on the Jewish opposition events. This is where the maths will get stickier: He has laid out 4 rules any accomplice must settle for: 

• recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state; 
• acceptance of the values of the Declaration of Independence; 
• obligatory service for all residents to strengthen the IDF; 
• and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist group that must be dismantled.

The quick deal-breaker is that the Arab events are Islamist, anti-Zionist, and do not acknowledge the fitting of Israel to exist. I have not seen this acknowledged, but I’d be prepared to wager they would not agree with calling Hamas a terrorist group.

Eisenkot has repeatedly declined to convey the Arab events into a governing coalition. In fact, he has acknowledged he doesn’t imagine current Arab events meet his circumstances, significantly the Hamas one, and has emphasised forming a Zionist authorities. Netanyahu has warned that any association relying on Arab events would endanger Israel. Yisrael Beiteinu, a secular Russian Jewish get together that voted to give Eisenkot first crack at forming a authorities, has long opposed dependence on Arab votes. A transfer to embrace those events wouldn’t only violate Eisenkot’s acknowledged “red line,” but it will also create inside pressure within his coalition.

His other main drawback is that he has basically put collaborating with Shas and United Torah, the ultra-Orthodox events, on the issue of draft exemptions for yeshiva college students. Eisenkot has insisted on ending broad draft exemptions for Haredi yeshiva college students as a non-negotiable precept. Either Eisenkot has to back down from this “red line” or the ultra-Orthodox have to vote to mainly destroy their communities.

Writing off 13 ultra-Orthodox seats and 19 Islamist seats to keep true to his acknowledged rules means Eisenkot has to discover 61 votes from the remaining 88 when Netanyahu’s Likud get together owns 27 of them. Because Eisenkot has ruled out any deal with Netanyahu, the maths turns into very tough for the anti-Netanyahu events.

Under Israel’s structure, Eisenkot has 28 days to assemble a ruling coalition. If he fails, which appears to be seemingly, another member of the Knesset must be supplied the prospect. That could be Netanyahu. If he fails, the president calls for a new election.

In the meantime, Bibi Netanyahu stays prime minister.

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