Best bets against the spread…
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The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s NFL Conference Championship video games.
SUNDAY
BRONCOS +4.5 over Patriots
If the Broncos attempt to play like they usually do by having their quarterback run around the area and create performs, they are going to lose this sport decisively. But head coach Sean Payton is just too good for that.
Payton is aware of the means to win a sport like this in freezing cold temperatures at home in the elevation with an elite protection.
Ball control and protection is the path to victory in what I suspect can be a very low-scoring sport at Mile High.
Temperatures are anticipated to be in the low teenagers and may even attain single digits, although the sport will kick off around 12 p.m. PST, giving them at least some reprieve on an anticipated sunny day.
Still, this is a sport Denver ought to muck up and rely on their No. 5 DVOA-rated protection that may give Drake Maye and the Patriots matches all afternoon.
We know that Jarrett Stidham, who is taking over for the injured Bo Nix, has only received one sport in his NFL profession, but this is all about the protection.
The lookahead line had the Broncos favored by 1.5 before the Nix injury.
The line has now shifted 5.5 factors in the reverse direction, and that’s just too wealthy for me.
I had the Broncos +5.5 on my early predictions piece this week, and I like the Broncos down to +3.5; that’s what I really feel like the distinction between Stidham and Nix is.
My model has the rating of this sport at 22.01 to 20.39.
Rams +2.5 over SEAHAWKS
You missed out on Rams +3 earlier in the week, but it’s not too late to help the best quarterback remaining in the playoffs with a loaded group of playmakers. Sam Darnold isn’t dangerous by any means, and Seattle has the No. 1-rated protection in the NFL per FTN’s DVOA, but I’m taking the factors right here.
In the prior two video games, both video games had been determined by a complete of three factors.
For all intents and functions, this sport is the Super Bowl between the two best groups in the NFL.
Getty Images
Seattle is rated No. 1 general in complete DVOA, while the Rams are rated No. 2.
Sean McVay has been there and executed that, while the Seahawks are in a bit of uncharted territory.
Trust the Rams to keep this close in a razor-thin spot that may go either means.
My model has underdogs as the best guess of the weekend, with a projected rating of 24.13 to 23.16 in favor of the Rams.
Season: 120-127-5
Playoffs: 4-4
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the soccer season he’s showcased large income at The Post in the participant prop market the last two seasons. While always betting long pictures, his return on investment is 30.15 p.c since 2022.
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