Bitcoin Repeats Its 2021 Pattern—Analyst Warns | Crypto News
Bitcoin rallied above $105,000 in mid-morning European trading on Tuesday, clawing back losses sustained over the weekend after dipping below six figures for the first time since May. Yet the respite might show fleeting, says veteran technician Quantum Ascend (@quantum_ascend).
Bitcoin Price Mirrors 2021
On side-by-side charts of the present cycle and the 2021-to-2024 arc, the analyst argued that Bitcoin is “the same exact pattern—run-up, one high, back down, second high,” adopted by an ABC corrective sequence that in 2021 bottomed only after a second, deeper flush. “Gut says no,” he instructed viewers when requested whether or not final Friday’s sell-off had already marked capitulation. “We’ve been talking about this ABC since March… people were calling for new lows; I said nope, we got five waves at the top, we got an ABC and then we go— and that’s when the alts take off.”
His base case now envisions a reduction rally toward the $107,000–$108,000 band—the extent where a trend-line projected from the 2 post-halving peaks intersects—before a closing leg decrease drives price into what he calls the “pain box” sandwiched between the 0.702 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements of all the rally from final October’s $58,000 breakout. In 2021 that zone in the end depraved to the precise 0.618, a transfer he believes might repeat, implying spot ranges between roughly $96,500 and $92,000. “This measurement fits the parameter now… if it wants to turn around and rip, great,” he conceded, “but there’s still a very good chance that was not the end.”
Internally, the analyst parses the present drop as the developing C-wave of a bigger flat, subdividing into a basic five-wave impulse. Wave three, he notes, seems full; wave 4 “could come up high,” granting altcoins a short-lived pop, “but hopefully, again, sooner than later, we roll over.” He cites 2021’s July fractal, when Bitcoin bounced 20% before sliding a closing time, as a psychological template. “When there’s a big news narrative event,” he noticed, “we’ll get a little relief—people think it’s done—then wham, one more thing to scare retail.”
Macro sentiment, he argues, stays fragile. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange hole at $92,000 is drawing “average-retail” bids, a setup he characterises as a “washing machine” in which skilled money fronts liquidity only to fade it. “Retail is just a washing machine, man… that buy isn’t going to get filled,” he warned. Still, he reiterated long-term optimism, revealing he “hammered some buys” during Monday’s dip and advising his followers to dollar-cost average—“not financial advice”—through the turbulence.
Quantum Ascend’s upside goal for the following impulsive advance is relatively restrained: $132,000, a degree he says enjoys “two pieces of confluence” and would coincide with “the alts moment” when Bitcoin dominance finally cracks. “We will eventually work our way back up near the top of this B-wave… flag a little, and then boom,” he predicted, referencing November 2021’s so-called “Trump pump” that ignited a multisector altcoin surge.
For now, merchants watch the 0.702–0.618 pocket and the mooted reduction ceiling at $108,000. Should Bitcoin slice through assist without that interim bounce, the analyst says, the flush might conclude “sooner than later,” clearing the runway for what he calls “the next few months—our moment.” In his sign-off he urged viewers to “be an adult, live through it,” but also confessed palpable pleasure: “I feel really good about where we’re at.” Whether the market shares his confidence will probably change into clear once the ultimate C-wave verdict arrives—maybe, he hopes, within the week.
At press time, BTC traded at $105,077.
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