Countdown To ‘Bitcoin Bottom Day’: Why September | Crypto News
Bitcoin (BTC), the main cryptocurrency, has skilled a notable decline, erasing the beneficial properties it achieved following the current choice by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates of interest.
After hovering to practically $118,000—just 5% shy of its all-time high—the market has confronted renewed uncertainty. Despite this setback, specialists emphasize that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin stays optimistic, particularly as September 21 approaches, a date recognized as pivotal for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Will September 21 Mark The Start Of A New Bull Run?
Market analyst Timothy Peterson highlights that traditionally, Bitcoin has completed the yr greater 70% of the time after September 21, with a median increase exceeding 50%. He has dubbed this date “Bitcoin Bottom Day,” suggesting that the percentages of a price increase are considerably favorable.
Peterson notes that two of the three downturns in Bitcoin’s historical past occurred during established bear markets in 2018 and 2022, circumstances that don’t mirror the current market state of affairs. This leads him to imagine that the possibilities of a price rise are nearer to 90% this yr.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s monitor document suggests it has a practically good probability of holding its beneficial properties six months post-September 21. Peterson estimates there’s at least a 70% probability that Bitcoin won’t drop below the $100,000 mark again.
Analysts Warn Of ‘Sell the News’ Bitcoin Phase
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at cryptocurrency exchange Bitget, also factors to the current 25-basis-point fee cut by the Fed as a issue that initially boosted Bitcoin’s price, briefly pushing it above $117,000. This cut, the first in 9 months, displays elevated liquidity in the market.
However, Lee cautions that the median projection of only 50 foundation factors in whole cuts for the yr might mood some of the optimism, introducing potential volatility as merchants regulate their methods.
Historically, Bitcoin has skilled a dip of 5% to 8% following fee cuts before resuming its upward pattern, suggesting a potential “sell the news” section in the approaching days.
Despite these fluctuations, Lee stays bullish about the macroeconomic atmosphere, asserting that decrease yields on money-market funds (MMFs) are doubtless to direct capital toward different investments, such as cryptocurrencies.
He emphasizes Bitcoin’s function as a hedge in this risk-on climate, particularly with roughly $7.2 trillion at the moment held in cash-like devices.
Looking forward, Lee predicts that the cryptocurrency could consolidate in the close to time period before focusing on costs between $123,000 and $150,000, ought to further fee cuts materialize.
Analysts at Bitfinex also share a optimistic outlook, projecting that with three anticipated fee cuts by the end of the yr and regular inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin might attain between $125,000 and $135,000 by year-end.
However, they also warning that if inflation or financial growth data hinder the Fed’s means to proceed with additional cuts, Bitcoin may stabilize within a vary of $110,000 to $115,000 as institutional participation and ETF belongings under management present a strong flooring.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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