Data Analyst Explains Why Good Polls for Dems in

I’ve been feeling over the past month that we might have been in what I’d call the “Seltzer Zone,” i.e., watching polls that could also be method off. 

Now, GWN senior data analyst Harry Enten is echoing a comparable thought, at least when it comes to some vital Senate races in Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan. 

As he explained, in all three states, the Republicans did better by 5+ factors in 2024 than the polls had them at this level.

Dems have had a lot of superb polls from Iowa, Mich & Ohio.

But are polls underestimating the GOP again? In all 3 states, GOP did better by 5+ pt in 2024 than polls had at this level.

Same factor in Trump’s 1st midterm.

Same occurs in 2026? GOP in all probability holds the Senate. pic.twitter.com/NZYxhGyRgd

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 30, 2026

Republicans did better than the September polls have been predicting in Iowa by 9, Ohio by 6, and Michigan by 5 in 2024. Now the kicker to that is that the leads that the Democrats have proper now are all under that 5 p.c. So if the Republicans outperform again as they’ve in the past, then Democrats needs to be very fearful of what may come. “We’ve seen this dance before,” Enten explained. “And it was not a dance that Democrats liked when the votes were actually cast and counted.” 

Well, perhaps that was because President Donald Trump was on the poll in 2024? 

No, because it wasn’t just in 2024; it was also true in 2018, during Trump’s first midterm. Again, Republicans outperformed by over 5, with Iowa 6, Ohio 6, and Michigan 8. So that needs to be very instructive in a comparable midterm yr. 

That outperformance by at least 5 factors for those states was also true in 2016, 2018, and 2020. 

As Enten notes, if that precept held for this election, they might maintain those three states. Then even if the Democrats picked up other states like Texas, Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina, for instance, Enten said there was a superb likelihood the Republicans would still maintain the Senate. 

Now clearly, that’s no guarantee. But it’s instructive. And it is not only Enten saying issues like this. 

As I wrote back in August:

In that analysis, Echelon pollster Patrick Ruffini famous that 3,312 polls had, on average, overestimated Democrats by 3.7 factors over the past 4 election cycles. During the summer season, the error fee was about 5.9 proportion factors.

Plus, while there have been some good polls for the Democrats, there have also been some good polls for the Republicans, for instance, displaying the Republicans forward in Iowa or Michigan. 

What this does show is that one should not be disheartened by the polls or take them as gospel; in fact, if this historical past bears out, issues could also be more constructive than the polls would show. There’s a heck of a lot of precedent to contemplate them off now; it is one thing we have seen again and again. I’ve a tendency, because of that, to read a tie or a Democrat forward by 1 or 2 as good news for Republicans. 

In the past week, I feel I’m also seeing more GOP vitality and galvanizing of the vote, with people realizing how a lot is at stake and getting more severe about getting out to vote, so that’s good. 

Bottom line? There are causes to really feel constructive, but the only method to make it occur is by getting out and voting, and bringing everybody who will vote proper along with you. 

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will decide the destiny of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must preserve control of both chambers of Congress.

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