Dogecoin Bull Run Ends If Rally Doesn’t Start Now, | Crypto News
Crypto analyst VisionPulsed says Dogecoin’s window for a cycle-defining advance has narrowed to weeks, arguing that a failure to pivot increased in November would possible end the current bull-side setup and shift the dialog to draw back risk in 2026.
In a late-November 5 video, the analyst framed Bitcoin’s weekly shifting average as the near-term arbiter of pattern and, by extension, Dogecoin’s destiny: “By the end of the week, we need to see Bitcoin back over $103,000–$104,000. If that ends up occurring, then you could possibly start pushing the concept… we may start speaking about a Dogecoin rally. If we close below $102k, 100k even, that’s your first affirmation that it’s truly a bear market.
Dogecoin Needs Immediate Reversal
VisionPulsed anchored the Dogecoin outlook to a broader read on market construction and cross-asset momentum. He famous that when mapping the “top-10 dominance” basket ex-stablecoins, the market has “fully retraced the alt season from 2021.” Hitting the higher band of that multi-year channel “doesn’t mean it’s the top,” he cautioned, but it reinforces how mature the advance has turn out to be. The analyst emphasised that he’s not declaring the start of altseason based on this single indicator; moderately, he’s situating Dogecoin risk in a market that has already re-tested a important historic boundary.
The instant gating issue, he said, stays Bitcoin’s weekly shifting average and a cluster of corroborating alerts. “All eyes are still on $103,000,” VisionPulsed said, pointing to a supertrend read that, so far, mirrors a March episode when price briefly broke below but never closed under it, avoiding a formal promote set off. He contrasted that with 2021, when confirmed closes below the same device delivered unambiguous promote alerts.
The distinction issues because Dogecoin’s high-beta habits to Bitcoin tends to compress timelines for both rallies and retracements, and any decisive break and close beneath the shifting average would erase the already tight window for a Dogecoin impulse.
Momentum, in the analyst’s framing, is “so bearish that it’s screaming the end of the market cycle is near,” even though the month-to-month MACD has not crossed down yet. That lag on higher-timeframe oscillators leaves room for a “very little rally,” which in earlier cycles still permitted outsized alt strikes.
“In this bull market… every time we’ve bounced off the moving average, we’ve broken the prior high,” he said, making the conditional case that if the pattern holds and Bitcoin reclaims the extent into the weekly close, a closing Dogecoin push stays potential. But he refused to lengthen the timeline past the close to time period: “I would argue that if we don’t actually go back up in November, it’s probably not happening.”
The calendar overlay is doing heavy lifting. VisionPulsed explored a situation in which Dogecoin may peak in January, but careworn the mathematics now strains credibility unless upside begins immediately. “Eighty-one days from now would be January… it’s starting to get to the point where it’s almost unachievable because you don’t want to keep stretching this out to January, February, March. At some point, you have to say it’s not happening.” The refusal to “move the goalposts” defines his base case: the bull thesis survives only if November prints a directional flip.
From a sample perspective, he flagged a head-and-shoulders-like construction on Dogecoin and launched a vivid draw back marker he has used in prior updates. “That’s why this little pig is down here,” he said, referring to a graphic that labels a potential capitulation zone around $0.05 to $0.06.
If Bitcoin loses the weekly shifting average and confirms the breakdown with a close, “the pig only is in play once Bitcoin is below that moving average,” and Dogecoin’s major goal would revert to “five to six cents.” On the Bitcoin facet, he framed a bear-market base case of 40,000–50,000 on the idea that both upside and draw back retracements are shrinking versus prior cycles, implying “not 77%… you’d probably get 65% to 70%,” which might align with a mid-40k trough.
For Dogecoin particularly, he drew a clean resolution tree. If Bitcoin reclaims $103,000–$104,000 into the weekly close and confirms above the shifting average, the Dogecoin rally window reopens, with a shot at a late-This autumn to January run. If Bitcoin closes below roughly $102,000 and sustains weak point, “it’s bear market time,” Dogecoin possible gravitates to the “pig at 5 cents,” and “it might even break the pig honestly” relying on the severity of Bitcoin’s drawdown.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.16297.
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