How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go? JPMorgan Points To A | Crypto News
JPMorgan has put a numerical marker under this Bitcoin cycle, telling purchasers that the market’s “pain threshold” now sits close to $94,000 — a stage the bank frames as both a mining-economics ground and an reply to the query of how low spot can realistically commerce before fundamentals start to chew. According to reporting by The Block, the analyst staff led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argues that “Bitcoin’s downside from current levels appears to be ‘very limited,’” because they “see its support price at around $94,000.”
How Low Can Bitcoin Go?
The core of the call is JPMorgan’s up to date estimate of Bitcoin’s manufacturing value. In their latest word, cited by The Block, the analysts say the all-in value to mine one bitcoin has risen from about $92,000 to roughly $94,000 as community issue has surged over latest months. That soar in issue forces miners to deploy more hashpower per block, lifting the marginal value per coin. The staff reiterates a framework they’ve used in prior cycles, stressing that “the bitcoin production cost has empirically acted as a floor for bitcoin,” so a greater value mechanically pulls the help zone greater as nicely.
On JPMorgan’s numbers, the ratio of spot price to manufacturing value now sits just above 1.0, close to the decrease end of its historic vary. That implies miners’ working margin is skinny and that there’s restricted room for an prolonged transfer far below the modeled value without triggering stress in the mining sector. From that perspective, the bank’s $94,000 stage isn’t introduced as a exact line in the sand, but as a statistically grounded area where draw back risk turns into compressed because miners’ incentives to keep promoting into weak spot deteriorate.
The same word retains a a lot more optimistic medium-term situation in place. JPMorgan reiterates a 6–12 month upside case around $170,000 per bitcoin, derived from a volatility-adjusted comparability with gold. As summarized by The Block, the analysts estimate that Bitcoin presently “consumes” around 1.8 occasions more risk capital than gold, yet still has a smaller market capitalization — roughly $2.1 trillion versus about $6.2 trillion in private-sector gold investment via ETFs, bars and cash. To close that hole on a volatility-adjusted foundation, they calculate Bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise by about 67%, “implying a theoretical bitcoin price of close to $170,000.”
The Block also highlights how this view matches into JPMorgan’s latest monitor document of calls. In an earlier word last month, the same staff argued that Bitcoin appeared considerably undervalued relative to gold, implying upside toward about $165,000 by year-end. Panigirtzoglou has since dialed back the timing, telling The Block that, “it would not be realistic to expect this price target by year’s end,” given latest liquidations and very weak sentiment, and reframing $170,000 as a 6–12 month situation reasonably than a near-term goal. The word additional recollects an August projection around $126,000 by year-end; Bitcoin later printed an all-time high above $126,200 on Oct. 6 before a document liquidation event on Oct. 10 abruptly reset positioning.
Those earlier items of research are constant with a broader framework JPMorgan has been articulating publicly. In a separate analysis earlier this month, also led by Panigirtzoglou and reported by MarketWatch, the bank argued that post-October deleveraging left Bitcoin “very cheap to gold” on a volatility-adjusted foundation and concluded that “this mechanical exercise thus implies significant upside for bitcoin over the next 6–12 months,” with truthful worth again clustering close to $170,000.
What the new word, as relayed by The Block, provides is a more express draw back anchor: as long as community issue and energy-input assumptions keep the estimated manufacturing value around $94,000, JPMorgan sees that stage as the efficient ground that solutions how low Bitcoin can go before mining economics drive the market to confront its constraints.
At press time, BTC traded at $97,505.
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