More Big Moves by the GOP to Hold the House –

Speaker Johnson appears to be very optimistic these days, saying the GOP will “defy history when we grow the majority in the House” in 2026.

The Speaker is clearly referencing the announcement of the new Texas GOP redistricting plan for the U.S. House seats in Texas, which was introduced not too long ago and may change a 25 Republican to 13 Democrat House delegation edge to a 30 Republican to 8 Democrat edge.  This can be a web gain of 5 seats, if the 5 new seats that are all pro-Trump by double digits vote Republican.  But a lot relies upon on whether or not the Hispanic voters in those districts proceed their electoral march in direction of the GOP.

This shouldn’t be the only redistricting plan that Johnson could also be relying on.  We are also ready on the Ohio GOP to redistrict, which can web 2 or 3 more seats.  It is also potential that Republicans will redistrict in Indiana, Georgia, Kansas, Missouri, New Hampshire and Florida.  Only in Florida may the GOP decide up more than one seat, although it’s unlikely to be as massive as the potential shift in Texas, as the Republicans presently have a 20 to 8 edge in the Florida delegation.

Democrats, of course, are squawking in faux partisan outrage about the gerrymandering, but, in Texas, the new districts are literally more compact and geographically logical than the previous districts have been, and the new map contains more Hispanic majority districts as effectively.  Further, the Democrats themselves have instituted ridiculous gerrymanders in California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Oregon, New Mexico, and Nevada, generally by serendipitous means, so it’s arduous to take their objections severely.

While Democrats have vowed to reply in their own states, that appears unlikely to accomplish a lot, with only Maryland’s one GOP district in any actual hazard.

Anyway, this clearly reveals that the GOP is taking a web page from the GOP expertise in 2002, one time in current years when the majority celebration bucked the mid-term curse, by making redistricting a essential half of the Trump marketing campaign workforce’s plan to maintain the U.S. House.  

The total Trump plan now appears to be:

1. Push GOP redistricting – see above; 

2. Minimize retirements – the Trump workforce has “steered Republican candidates in House races in Iowa, Michigan and New York” from operating for different workplaces and thus opening up their probably weak districts;

3. Spend massive – the GOP continues to spend massive quantities of money to shield its majority, although not fairly as a lot as the Democrats.  It is unclear how a lot the affiliated exterior teams are spending, though;

4. Take major challengers off the desk – by endorsing members for their House seats early, Trump is making it arduous for one other Republican to problem the incumbent; 

5. Raise gobs more money – the GOP has outraised the Democrats at both the related national committees;

6. Ramp up recruiting;

7. Push sure points – taking a web page from 1998, the only different current time the majority celebration bucked the mid-term curse, the GOP plans to assault House Democrats on impeachment (I’m glad I prompt that 😊).  Considering the great hatred emanating from Democrats relating to Trump, it appears probably that many particular person Democrat candidates will come out for one other impeachment, even though the Senate will never take away the President.

Outside elements also appear to be taking part in into Speaker Johnson’s optimism.  

• The “U.S. economy grew at a 3% rate in Q2, a better-than-expected pace…”  If this retains up, and if the U.S. doesn’t get engaged in a long-term battle – despite the wishes of the leftists and the woke proper – this makes it unlikely for any blue wave in the House.

• Circling back to the RCP average, Donald Trump’s approval score has moved back up to 46.3 p.c approval to 51.4 p.c disapproval.  So a lot for the supposed backlash on the One Big Beautiful Bill, the Epstein Scandal, the Iran assault, the firings of federal authorities employees, the deportations of criminals, and many others.  And, as Hot Air and I commented before, the left-leaning pollsters are still up to their previous tips when it comes to polling, so the actual average definitely is more favorable to President Trump. 

• The Democrats can’t stop preventing Donald Trump on every problem, including the ‘80/20’ points that favor him.  The GOP ought to proceed to take benefit of that, particularly on immigration points and deportations.  

• The Democrats also can’t stop hating/ranting against Trump in public, and castigating their own celebration management for not appearing as belligerently, despite how off-putting it seems to be to moderates and non-partisans.  I’ve belabored this level a number of instances in my doom loop sequence of columns, but right here is a Democrat guide saying the similar factor and begging his celebration to stop appearing like loons. I suspect the Democrats received’t be taught this lesson in 2026, however (It took them 12 years to be taught to stop operating outspoken and weak leftists against the GOP in the 1980’s).

• Strangely enough, after claiming that he was going to problem Republicans and Democrats with a deficits-do-matter third celebration, Elon Musk has determined to give a lot of his money to GOP tremendous PACs.  This is the good play, although at this level I’ve no concept what Musk goes to do next, so he definitely may change his strategy again.

Keep in thoughts that the GOP wants only to restrict their losses to two seats in the House to retain control of that chamber (Any further seats are merely gravy). If the Republicans do decide up a sizable quantity of seats in redistricting, and there may be no recession, contemplating that the GOP shouldn’t be in a dangerous place in the boom-and-bust cycle of the House, this may be very doable.