More New Poll Data on Senate Races That Doesnt

We just reported on a new ballot that has issues not trying good for the Democratic candidate for the Maine Senate seat, Graham Platner. He’s now trailing, according to a Fox News ballot, and this is before even more issues that could come out in a couple of weeks. Democrats are going to freak out when they hear this news. 

But that is not the only issue they’ve when it comes to the Senate. 

READ MORE: New: Dems Are Going to Freak Out at Latest Maine Senate Poll

New Poll in Maine Senate Race Shows Big Warning Signs for Graham Platner

As GWN senior data analyst Harry Enten explained on Wednesday, the Democrats have a critical math drawback. 

Right now, Dems have a math drawback in taking back the Senate.

They need a internet pickup of 4 seats & lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP forward.

Problem is the basics…. Median of key 6 states: GOP with +6 on generic poll. 53% say Dem occasion too far left. pic.twitter.com/FUdQRfXIAB

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 1, 2026

The Democrats need a internet gain of 4 seats to take control of the Senate, Enten explained. 

The drawback? The math is not working for them. They only lead in one Republican-held seat in North Carolina (+7).

But the Republicans are forward in Iowa (+2), Alaska (+2), and Ohio (+3), and tied in Texas. Although the races are close, according to the polling, Democrats would have to mainly run the desk to get the seats they need. That “tie” in Texas is also maybe in query. I’m inclined to assume the polling is overestimating James Talarico in Texas. 

Enten then addressed Maine, which he did not have on his board, but famous the new Fox News ballot we talked about, that had incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) forward by three factors—despite Maine being a state that went for Kamala Harris in 2024. 

Host John Berman requested the analyst: why are Democrats having such a drawback?

Enten explained that, besides for Maine, these states are purple states, with the median having the Republicans up by 6 factors in the generic Senate poll. So that begins as an uphill battle. 

Then, on top of that, 53 % in those states say the Democratic Party is just too far left. It’s not clear if the polling contains the wins by socialists in New York and Colorado, with all their radical, unhinged concepts. But that is only going to stoke that authentic concern even more.  As we also reported earlier, polling signifies that a significant slice of Democrats are all in for the Democratic Socialists. 

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So please, Democrats, keep highlighting all those socialists – they’re the face of your occasion now, and people understand it. 

Enten regarded to the prediction markets and noticed that the Republicans’ possibilities to maintain the Senate have gone up since May, from 51 % to 59 %. So those numbers are also going in the incorrect direction for the Democrats. 

They merely have a “statistical math problem,” Enten concluded. Add to that the numbers most likely also not figuring in dropping gasoline costs, and those numbers are going to look even better. 

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will decide the destiny of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must preserve control of both chambers of Congress.

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