Picks for AFC, NFC playoff tilts…
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The Rams will probably be taking part in their third street playoff sport in 16 days. They have traveled from L.A. to Charlotte to L.A. to Chicago to L.A. and, finally, up the West Coast to Seattle.
The Seahawks have been home that complete time and have performed just one sport, a rout of the 49ers that was mainly determined on Rashid Shaheed’s landing return on the opening kickoff.
Seattle also performed Saturday, giving them an additional day in contrast to the Rams-Bears sport Sunday.
According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, groups with the remainder benefit are 27-17 (straight-up) SU in the convention championship since the 2003-04 season, including 21-7 SU at home.
And right here’s a factoid that’s so distinctive there’s not even a pattern for it: The Rams are the first crew in the Super Bowl period to advance to a convention championship after failing to cowl in its first two playoff video games.
Rams (+2.5) over SEAHAWKS | Under 46.5
So why am I choosing the Rams? I’m wanting at three key areas:
Matthew Stafford: The Rams’ quarterback is a Super Bowl winner and is the slight favourite to beat out Drake Maye for the regular-season MVP award. He has a absolutely healthy offensive arsenal — including Puka Nacua and Davante Adams at large receiver, and Kyren Williams and Blake Corum in the backfield. The offensive line is full of gamers who rank in the top 10 in the NFL at their positions.
Sam Darnold: Seattle’s quarterback has an indirect injury, and the coaches have been limiting his throws in observe. He had the same drawback last week, but the Seahawks performed that complete sport from in entrance, and the decimated 49ers protection was never ready to put him in hurt’s means.
Last season, Darnold led the Vikings to a 14-3 common season, but in the first playoff sport, he was sacked 9 occasions by the Rams in a 29-7 Los Angeles win.
The 49ers couldn’t get after him, but the Rams can.
Other Seahawks accidents: With Darnold a bit gimpy, Seattle may like to rely on the ground sport, but Zach Charbonnet will not be there to choose up for Kenneth Walker III. If something occurs to Walker, the Seahawks will probably be bereft in the backfield. Also, blindside sort out Charles Cross didn’t observe Wednesday with a foot injury. This looms as a drawback for Darnold.
The circumstances will probably be more favorable for the Rams than they had been in Chicago, where gamers put cayenne pepper in their spikes to help keep heat.
Low 40s, still winds, dry — a excellent recipe for Nacua, Stafford, and Co. to pull off the minor outright upset.
Rams 24-20.
Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams in motion against the Chicago Bears. AP
Patriots (-4.5) over BRONCOS | Under 42.5
The most fascinating man in the NFL is a man who didn’t throw a cross all season.
Jarrett Stidham didn’t throw a cross in the 2024 season, either, and now right here he’s, the beginning quarterback for the Broncos in Sunday’s AFC Championship sport. That was the outcome of the gorgeous news that Bo Nix suffered a damaged ankle on the ultimate drive of the Broncos’ victory over the Bills.
The names Nick Foles, Jeff Hostetler, and even Earl Morrall immediately got here to thoughts as backup quarterbacks who led their groups to Super Bowl championships. Are they proof enough that this will be carried out?
Or is this supposed to go how it did for the likes of Joe Webb, Connor Cook, and Taylor Heinicke, the past three quarterbacks to start a playoff sport after not having began one in the common season?
All three of them misplaced by an average complete of 11.7 factors.
Betting on the NFL?
The Broncos opened as 1.5-point favorites against the Patriots before news broke of the Nix injury. The line flipped in a big means, with New England transferring to -5.5 before some buyback on Denver introduced it back to 4.5.
The numerical gymnastics prompted handicappers to marvel just how a lot of a distinction there’s between Nix, mainly a secure sport supervisor with some scrambling abilities, and Stidham, who’s considerably of an unknown commodity.
Those wanting to back the Broncos are telling themselves that the dropoff isn’t as large as the road shift. They’re saying (hoping?) that Sean Payton will get Stidham to a level where he can contribute enough and keep away from the big errors, and that the Broncos’ extremely rated protection can do the remainder to beat the Patriots or at least cowl the quantity.
People touting the Patriots are channeling Ron Washington from “Moneyball” — saying it’s “incredibly hard” to step in as a beginning quarterback in the playoffs after having not performed a down in anger for two years. They’ll also level to the past two weeks, when New England’s attacking protection sacked Justin Herbert six occasions in a 16-3 victory and intercepted C.J. Stroud 4 occasions, with three sacks, in a 28-16 win.
It can be helpful for Stidham if WRs Pat Bryant (concussion) and Troy Franklin (hamstring) may make it back after exiting the Bills sport with accidents. If not, this Denver offense will probably be somewhat skinny.
Their protection is unbroken, but acquired labored over by Josh Allen and the Bills. Allen threw three landing passes and didn’t draw back from going after Patrick Surtain II, and James Cook III ran for 117 yards.
A pair of reckless selections by Allen and a few controversial calls, and we wouldn’t even be speaking about Stidham this week.
According to the Action Network’s Abrams, the Broncos are the most important home underdogs in a convention championship since the 1970 merger. He stories that home ’canines of four-plus factors are 9-0 against the unfold in the past 50 years in the playoffs (most not too long ago the Panthers masking vs. the Rams in this 12 months’s wild-card spherical).
I respect that last pattern, but I imagine the road change was warranted, that Stidham will battle and the Patriots will prevail somewhat comfortably. Also word that Drake Maye is 12-0 SU and 10-2 against the unfold as a favourite of three factors or more in his profession.
Patriots 26-13.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Rams (Locks 8-12 in 2025-26).
LAST WEEK: 4-4 (3-1 sides, 1-3 Over/Unders).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks relationship back to 1994. He gained the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most not too long ago in 2023.
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