Playing the Judicial Odds – RedState

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Good morning, and welcome to RedState’s “Morning Minute” — a temporary glimpse at which tales are trending at the second and a look forward at what the day could deliver. Consider this your one-stop store for information to kickstart your day. 

TOP O’ THE MORNIN’

Red-Hot at RedState 

New: Judge Stops Congress From Defunding Planned Parenthood, Outrage and Confusion Follow

If nefarious events can merely stall their means to overriding elected officers with specious legal reasoning, then why even have elections?

Department of Defense Has a Message for LA Mayor Following Her Anger Over ICE Raid

In a post on X, the DOD made it clear it’ll defend law enforcement and Immigration and Customs Enforcement brokers while they do their job to defend American residents. 

Ric Grenell Rips Gavin Newsom, Lays Out What Needs to Happen to Make California a Golden State Again

Grenell hits onerous right here… but he’s one hundred pc on goal on every one of his factors.

Trending Across Townhall Media

Jonathan Turley Takes Look at Maine Community College’s Actions

The reality that the faculty has taken no motion would not shock me. I doubt they’ll until and unless the backlash turns into so extreme they’ve no different selection but to take that motion.

Hamas Security Officer: Let’s Face It, We’re Finished

This a lot is definite, however: Hamas can have delivered a much-changed area in the Middle East as a consequence of their October 7 massacres. They have destroyed Iranian hegemony, the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, probably Hezbollah and its grip on Lebanon, and could take down the ridiculously corrupt and malicious Palestinian Authority along with it. And not least, themselves.

They Say ‘Nobody’s Above the Law’—Until It’s Their Judge

The gown doesn’t make you holy. And it sure doesn’t make you immune.

Intelligence Operative on Epstein Files: ‘This Is a Total F**king Disaster’

The Trump Justice Department made this a large deal—they will’t depart us hanging.

Ten ANTIFA Members Arrested and Charged With Attempted illegal killing in Ambush of ICE Agents in Alvarado, Texas

Democrats have been engaged in anti-ICE rhetoric; they need to condemn these assaults immediately and stop pushing resistance against federal brokers who are implementing our nation’s immigration legal guidelines.

WHAT’S ON TAP?

Today on Capitol Hill…

It will likely be a busy day on the Hill Tuesday. The Senate is back in session, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is slated to meet with GOP senators and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).

Senate back in session in the present day. Netanyahu to the Capitol to met with Johnson and GOP senators

— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) July 8, 2025

Additionally, there are a number of conferences/hearings set (though they’re all “closed”), including:

• Senate Intelligence (Select) — Closed business assembly to contemplate pending calendar objects; to be immediately adopted by a closed briefing on sure intelligence issues
• Senate Armed Services, Airland Subcommittee — Closed business assembly to markup those provisions which fall under the subcommittee’s jurisdiction of the proposed National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal 12 months 2026
• Senate Armed Services, SeaPower Subcommittee —Closed business assembly to markup those provisions which fall under the subcommittee’s jurisdiction of the proposed National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal 12 months 2026
• Senate Armed Services, Strategic Forces Subcommittee — Closed business assembly to markup those provisions which fall under the subcommittee’s jurisdiction of the proposed National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal 12 months 2026
• Senate Armed Services, Readiness and Management Support Subcommittee — Closed business assembly to markup those provisions which fall under the subcommittee’s jurisdiction of the proposed National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal 12 months 2026

White House What’s Up

Fresh off a assembly and dinner with Prime Minister Netanyahu and key Cabinet officers Monday night, President Donald Trump will maintain a Cabinet assembly late Tuesday morning. On Monday, he also despatched out a sequence of letters to a number of nations relating to reciprocal tariffs.

READ MORE: Trump Slaps New Reciprocal Tariffs on Imports From Japan, South Korea, Gives Both Countries a Deadline

Full Court Press…

We’ve had some humdinger rulings out of federal district courts in the Trump 2.0 period, but Monday’s out of Massachusetts relating to Planned Parenthood funding — as handed by Congress in final week’s reconciliation invoice (and then signed by President Trump) — would possibly take the cake. I’ve a sneaking suspicion that Judge Indira Talwani is about to get a harsh lesson in the limits of judicial authority. And I’m right here for it. 🍿

READ MORE: New: Judge Stops Congress From Defunding Planned Parenthood, Outrage and Confusion Follow

Another district court decide who also could also be on the verge of a robust lesson is Paula Xinis in Maryland. Judge Xinis stays under the impression that she has a say in the destiny of St. Kilmar of El Salvador. If she ever did (and that’s a large IF), she no longer does, as defined by our buddy Shipwreckedcrew right here. 

There’s a trial underway (also in Massachusetts) before Judge William Young in the case of American Association of University Professors v. Rubio, involving the administration’s tried removing of non-citizen protesters from the U.S. We’ll be conserving an eye on that one, as effectively.

COMING ATTRACTIONS

President Trump plans to head to Texas later this week to survey the areas affected by final weekend’s horrific flooding. 

MORNING MUSING

As many of you realize, I practiced law for nearly three a long time before hanging up my briefcase and formally coming into the world of political digital media. My specialty was insurance coverage protection litigation — that means at the behest of their insurers, I defended people and corporations who had been sued (civilly). One of the first issues I informed my purchasers when we spoke or met (because they had been nearly at all times anxious about the course of — understandably) was that roughly 95 p.c of civil instances settle somewhat than going to trial. That wasn’t an exaggeration. Taking a case to trial and leaving the final result in the arms of a jury is a crapshoot. Everyone performs the odds, and just about everybody has a breakpoint, where the risk of rolling the cube is no longer price it. Sometimes, it takes a while (possibly even up to the courthouse steps) to get there, but most people ultimately do. 

The calculations are a bit completely different when we’re speaking bench trials. Judges are clearly savvy to the system, and there’s just one of them deciding your destiny in a bench trial versus a jury of 12 (or generally six). Evidence and arguments that would possibly land a technique with jurors will land in a different way with an skilled trial decide. There’s a bit more predictability, though not totally. Even more so as you make your means up the appellate ladder. Appellate courts are relying on established law and are certain by precedent. You can never say for sure what they’re going to do — but you may have a fairly good thought. 

All of which is to say I discovered long, long in the past (in a galaxy far, distant) that you may never (and ought to never) promise your purchasers (or anybody) what the final result of a trial or judicial continuing will likely be. You can provide them educated guesses, best and worst-case eventualities, and many others., but never a guarantee. Our readers aren’t my purchasers, and the draw back to making assured predictions relating to the final result of sure instances quantities to winding up with egg on my face — still, there’s important worth in sustaining my credibility, of course. 

With that stated, I’m going to wander out on the limb right here and predict this: When the smoke clears on some of these instances, it is going to be Judges Talwani and Xinis (and fairly a few others) with egg on their faces. 

LIGHTER FARE 

Dude’s bought the life!

From Erin Brooks “Hey Mr. Spann, This is Loki, he’s my Golden Retriever but I’m fairly sure his maternal grandmother was a river otter.He makes use of the pool more than anybody in our home and when he’s not doing the 200 meter breaststroke he’s in his favourite float.

With all the… pic.twitter.com/dphzvI02n0

— James Spann (@spann) July 7, 2025

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