XRP Ledger Congestion Could Burn 1 Billion Coins A | Crypto News
Software Engineer and founder of varied AI start ups Vincent Van Code (@vincent_vancode) argues on X that most XRP burn projections are understated because they assume today’s low transaction charges persist even under heavy community usage. In his framing, sustained congestion on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) might push charges larger via the protocol’s load-scaling mechanics, probably destroying on the order of one billion XRP yearly.
XRPL Load Factor Could Turn Fees Into A Major XRP Burn
In a thread titled “The ‘Supply Meltdown’ Simulation,” Vincent Van Code claimed “everyone is calculating the XRP burn wrong,” beginning with the premise that the generally cited base payment of 0.00001 XRP only displays a quiet community. “But what happens if the world actually starts using the XRPL at its 3,400 TPS limit?” he wrote, positioning load-driven payment escalation as the pivotal variable fairly than uncooked throughput alone.
Van Code’s simulation walks through a number of payment regimes at the same headline exercise fee, emphasizing that burn modifications dramatically when the ledger is full and the “Load Factor” will increase charges to deter spam. “As the ledger fills up, the Load Factor kicks in to stop spam,” he wrote. “Fees don’t just stay low; they scale exponentially.”
He anchored the thread with 4 situations and daily burn estimates, beginning with what he called a “standard day” of 1.2 million transactions and roughly 450 XRP burned per day. From there, he modeled “global adoption” at the acknowledged 3,400 TPS ceiling, translating to about 293 million transactions per day at base payment and an estimated 2,937 XRP burned daily.
The more aggressive claims come when he holds transaction quantity fixed at that 293 million-per-day degree but lifts the efficient payment via congestion. In his “congestion hike” case, he assumes the load-scaled payment rises to 0.001 XRP, implying about 293,760 XRP burned per day. In a “full gridlock” case at 0.01 XRP per transaction, he estimates 2,937,600 XRP burned daily.
The thesis leans on a structural function of XRPL charges: they aren’t paid out to validators or any sponsoring entity, but eliminated from circulation. Van Code underscored that distinction immediately. “The fees aren’t paid to miners. They aren’t paid to Ripple. They are destroyed forever.”
The “Supply Meltdown” Simulation
Headline: Everyone is calculating the $XRP burn fallacious.
The “base fee” (0.00001 XRP) only exists when the community is quiet. But what occurs if the world really begins utilizing the XRPL at its 3,400 TPS restrict?
The Congestion Math:
As the…— Vincent Van Code (@vincent_vancode) January 24, 2026
From that, he attracts his headline conclusion: (*1*) framing community demand—and the congestion it creates—as “the ultimate deflationary engine.”
At press time, XRP traded at $1.88.
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