Democrats Officially Hit the Panic Button in New

A pair of weeks in the past, PinkState reported on how the New Hampshire Senate race was turning into one to keep an eye on due to how the contest was shaping up as the race prepares to enter the basic election marketing campaign season.

The major is Tuesday, September eighth, and if the current polling bears out, we’ll see former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) take on four-term Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01) to decide who will get to fill the seat being vacated by Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who opted not to run for reelection. Shaheen defeated Sununu, who served one time period, in 2008.

As we famous in our reporting, late August polling on a hypothetical matchup from the University of New Hampshire (UNH) and 7NEWS confirmed a tight race, “statistically tied,”  but with Sununu having a slight two-point edge, though within the margin of error.

2026 New Hampshire Senate Race

🔴 John E. Sununu: 45%
🔵 Chris Pappas: 43%

This could be a 🔵 D -> 🔴 R Flip

UNH ballot | 8/20-8/24 pic.twitter.com/YgqXAfjO6E

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) August 26, 2026

It was vital not just because it was the first ballot taken in 2026 displaying Sununu forward in a basic election match-up state of affairs, but also because the earlier UNH ballot from June had Pappas forward of Sununu by three.

Between that, a National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)-commissioned ballot that also confirmed Sununu with a slight edge, and the fact that the Sununu title carries a lot of weight in New Hampshire politics (dad John H. and brother Chris both served as governor), Democrats have formally hit the panic button on this race, with the New York Times reporting that “a tide of anxiety has risen” among New Hampshire Dems in latest weeks:

Mr. Pappas himself is raising the alarm and underscoring the national implications of the race. He put it bluntly in a fund-raising electronic mail on Friday morning: “We’re losing.”

[…]

On paper, New Hampshire must be simple for the Democrats to maintain onto. Ms. Shaheen and Senator Maggie Hassan, the state’s other Democratic senator, had been handily re-elected in 2022 and 2020. Voters there haven’t elected a Republican to the Senate since Kelly Ayotte, who is now the governor, was elected in 2010. The state has not backed a Republican for president since 2000.

But New Hampshire Democrats — whose main character power has not ebbed despite being dislodged from their conventional high-profile function as host of the kickoff presidential major — say the image is more difficult, notably with Mr. Sununu in it. Ms. Hassan and Ms. Shaheen confronted little-known Republicans in their last races. The last time a Democrat confronted a severe Republican contender, when Ms. Ayotte ran for re-election in 2016, Ms. Hassan received by just about 1,000 votes.

The Times also quoted former New Hampshire Democrat Party chairwoman Kathy Sullivan, who famous that the Granite State is “not a blue state. It’s a purple state.”  It’s a level that was echoed in so many phrases by Pappas himself in August:

“These are the only two people who have been elected as Democrats to the Senate from New Hampshire in the last half a century,” Pappas told WBUR, calling the coming election “a game of inches.”

Much like is being carried out with GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, Democrats are going to do their best to use the guilt-by-association card on Sununu on the issue of President Trump, even though Sununu wasn’t a senator during Trump’s first time period and even though Sununu, along with his dad and brother, backed Nikki Haley in the 2024 GOP presidential major over Trump.

But Trump, maybe realizing the significance of holding the Senate amid the rise of “democratic socialism” within the Democrat Party, appears to have made peace with it, endorsing Sununu in February, very similar to he gave the thumbs up to Collins in her reelection bid despite her unbiased streak:

News: Trump endorses John E. Sununu in the NH Senate race pic.twitter.com/JN3FfSWolC

— Reese Gorman (@reesejgorman) February 1, 2026

Sununu has to get by former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who has had a poor displaying in polling, trailing Sununu by an average of 33 factors. Pappas wants to get by newcomer and self-described “peace activist” Karishma Manzur, who socialists are rallying behind. 

She has trailed Pappas by big numbers in most polling, but the UNH ballot indicated she had “significantly narrowed the gap” to 13 %, while 18 % remained undecided.  She bought this good zinger on him in the last debate:

Far-Left Democrat Karishma Manzur calls out Chris Pappas for being a do-nothing member of Congress.

“I wish the congressman would have actually addressed it years ago instead of waiting for another person to author it.” pic.twitter.com/oTNXS12qeo

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 5, 2026

One ultimate factor to keep in thoughts is that there may very well be a “spoiler” candidate in this contest who has the potential to harm Sununu:

A federal choose has cleared the means for unbiased U.S. Senate candidate Aaron Day to be on the poll this November.

U.S. District Court Judge Landya B. McCafferty, in a two-page order issued Monday, ordered New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan to settle for Day’s declaration of intent and “include him on the ballot if he is otherwise eligible.”

The choose concluded the state’s requirement that Senate candidates be registered to vote where they live runs afoul of the U.S. Constitution and federal legal precedent.

Day admits that his purpose is to harm Sununu’s possibilities of profitable, and credit himself with former Senator (now governor) Kelly Ayotte’s 2016 loss to Hassan:

Instead, he’s brazenly campaigning on the premise of taking away votes from Republican John E. Sununu, who polls show is main in the GOP major. Day’s marketing campaign web site consists of a part titled “Stop Sununu,” with a large quantity of assault adverts.

Day also performed spoiler in New Hampshire’s 2016 Senate race, when he acquired almost 18,000 votes, enough to help defeat Republican Kelly Ayotte, who misplaced to then-Gov. Maggie Hassan by just over 1,000 votes. At the time, Day said he was motivated by what he noticed as flaws in the Republican platform.

We’ll keep you posted on developments.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will decide the destiny of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must preserve control of both chambers of Congress.

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