Wait, What? Is Louisianas Senate Race Really a

Good morning from the great state of Louisiana, where, all of a sudden, people understand that the U.S. Senate race to change Bill Cassidy is a lot tighter than anticipated. And most of us didn’t even have this race on their radar because it is Louisiana and absolutely it wasn’t at risk of falling, proper?

Well, the only polling that’s obtainable in this race actually makes it seem to be it is close. Hart Research dropped a ballot at the end of the week displaying a 45-45 tie between Congresswoman Julia Letlow and Democrat candidate Jamie Davis.

The caveat? The Davis marketing campaign commissioned the ballot.

Hart research has the Louisiana Senate race tied I take this with a big grain of salt just like MT, SD polls but still … https://t.co/VrQ2VA6YlY

— Burgess Everett (@burgessev) October 30, 2026

45-45 would imply 10 p.c are undecided. Days before the election in a deep purple state, that ought to raise all the purple flags. In fact, I discussed in a separate op-ed on my own Substack earlier this week that Republicans must be on purple alert, even as I feel Letlow still wins. Democrats, and in specific black voters, confirmed up at stunning ranges during early voting. Black voters made up a increased share of the early vote than their general registered voter share. That’s a motivation issue.

On both sides. Let’s start with the Democrats. 

Black voters are a important chunk of the Democrat base in Louisiana. And while they haven’t usually wielded energy within their celebration infrastructure, in latest years that has began to change. Their voters really feel more empowered than ever, and the celebration’s candidate at the top of the poll is a black farmer, business proprietor, gun proprietor, and a man who comes across very effectively to a lot of voters, and not just black Democrats.

On top of that, Louisiana v. Callais seems to have been considerably of a double-edged sword. Conservatives bought a large win in the Supreme Court with the Callais resolution, but it took away a recently-created second majority-minority district in Louisiana, and black voters listed here are livid about it.

They are motivated to exit to the polls. The Republicans? Not so a lot proper now.

The Congresswoman is a good girl. She is completely underwhelming on the stump and in her commercials. At a latest rally in the town where I live, a rally she held with Senator John Kennedy, a number of of us I spoke to left feeling less than enthusiastic. Again, at a rally that also featured John Kennedy. If you possibly can’t trip the vitality he brings to an event, one thing could be very fallacious.

Letlow has a number of issues working against her. The marketing campaign has been horribly run, drawing on the belief of and, frankly, entitlement to GOP votes and they haven’t finished enough voter outreach. That comes after a brutal major in which Letlow and a strong conservative, state treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming, went at each other and Fleming misplaced.

Letlow didn’t enter the race until after Gov. Jeff Landry satisfied Donald Trump to endorse her, which he did before she declared her candidacy. Landry’s own PACs did most of the combating for her in the marketing campaign. She barely launched herself to voters and relied on the endorsement of Landry and Trump to escape the first. Then she sat quietly and waited for the final election.

She has run advertisements on flood insurance coverage and China shopping for farmland. Meanwhile, the largest points on voters’ minds in Louisiana are data facilities, a new SpaceX launch website, and the federal government signing NDAs to disguise these tasks until they’re announced. Letlow also appears to have purchased some stock in Meta after signing an NDA, though her marketing campaign says she didn’t direct that buy.

She has not related with voters, who can be more than keen to aspect with her if she had finished any kind of outreach past operating against a Generic Democrat instead of Jamie Davis.

Now, back to that 10 p.c undecided in Davis’ ballot. In all probability, that 10 p.c are people who usually vote Republican, even if they don’t seem to be registered as Republicans. They may very well be registered Democrats who never modified their celebration affiliation when the state turned purple but have always voted more center-right than center-left. There are a lot more of those in elements of this state than you may understand.

That 10 p.c are (most likely) not voting for Davis. That 10 p.c try to determine whether or not to vote for Letlow or just keep home. It is Letlow’s job to get them out, and she hasn’t satisfied them to yet. But, election day is often a lot more Republican than Democrat when it comes to turnout, and there are a lot of those Republicans who will in the end say they do not need to risk the Senate falling into the fingers of an more and more socialist Democrat Party.

But it is tight. Way tighter than it must be, and that is the fault of the Letlow marketing campaign more than anybody else.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will decide the destiny of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must keep control of both chambers of Congress.

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