Four keys, matchups and prediction for 2026…
October baseball always has a humorous method of bringing outdated enemies together, only this time there’s a change of handle.
One yr after the Chicago Cubs eradicated the San Diego Padres in three video games at Wrigley Field in the 2025 National League Wild Card Series, the 2 groups will meet again in a rematch Tuesday night time at Petco Park.
The Cubs gained 5 of six conferences between the groups this season, including a soccer rating of 23-3 back in July. The Cubs also carry baseball’s most productive offense, an extraordinary protection, and the doubtless NL MVP in Pete Crow-Armstrong.
But July 1 is in the past. The Padres caught fire during the ultimate two months of the season, ending with the best document in baseball over their ultimate 59 video games at 41-18, incomes the precise to have the sequel held at Petco Park.
Shota Imanaga celebrates in the clubhouse after clinching a National League wild card postseason spot following a baseball recreation against the Miami Marlins. AP Photo/Melissa Tamez
Chicago Cubs middle fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong acknowledges the group after stealing second base during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field. IMAGN IMAGES via GWN Connect
Here’s how the California Post views the matchup this season:
Cubs offense vs. Padres pitching
Advantage: Padres
The Cubs can rake. They led the majors in OPS and the NL in homers this season. Crow-Armstrong was a gold glove-caliber centerfielder and a 40-40 wrecking ball on offense. Alex Bregman, in his first season with the Cubs, has been bludgeoning opponents. He returned from taking a foul ball off the face by going 4-for-4 with two homers in Chicago’s ultimate recreation of the common season on Sunday.
However, the Padres possess the weapon that everybody in the postseason desires: a lights out bullpen. It basically shrinks the sport from 9 innings to six when you may have three relievers succesful of dominating the opposing lineup.
If San Diego has questions, it’s their beginning pitching. Michael King is anticipated to start Game 1 on Tuesday after a 3.21 ERA this season. The Padres just need him to get through six innings with the lead so they will hand the ball to Adrian Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez and Mason Miller to close it out.
The Cubs’ offense has a simple mission: injury the Padres starter and knock him out of the sport before the bullpen door swings open with any of the aforementioned relievers.
Mason Miller of the San Diego Padres earns a save in the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Getty Images
Padres offense vs. Cubs pitching
Advantage: Padres
San Diego’s offense lacked a spark in the first half of the season. At one level they have been 50-53 on July 23 and on the surface wanting in of the MLB Playoffs. But then Fernando Tatis Jr. discovered his energy, and Jackson Merrill began to appear like the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up again.
At the same time the Padres offense flipped the ability swap, the Cubs beginning rotation began to sputter. Kevin Gausman, acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays at the commerce deadline, has an injury to his non-throwing shoulder and his availability is in query. Matthew Boyd gives stability, as does Shota Imanga, but the Cubs’ biggest weapon may be their protection behind their starters. Chicago’s protection this season has been spectacular and that can only breathe confidence into their beginning workers as the sequence develops.
Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres celebrates with Fernando Tatis Jr. after hitting a three-run home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Getty Images
Four keys to the sequence
1. It’s Miller Time!
The absolute worst place the Cubs need to discover themselves is trailing going into the top of the ninth inning. Because that’s when Miller, one of baseball’s most overpowering relievers, is at his absolute best.
On the brilliant facet, the Cubs have had earlier success against Miller, but voluntarily making him the impediment standing in the way in which between you and advancing to the NLDS shouldn’t be the best method to spend the end of September.
2. PCA’s MVP season wants to flip into October stardom
Crow-Armstrong’s 2025 postseason was forgettable: .185 with no extra-base hits in 29 plate appearances against San Diego and Milwaukee.
His 2026 common season noticed him grow to be a 40-40 famous person and the doubtless NL MVP. PCA is a game-changer with his bat, legs, or glove. The playoffs is now his alternative to introduce this yr’s model of himself to the world. For the Cubs to advance, PCA will need to be the MVP of the sequence.
3. Throw away the common season
The Cubs can trust going into the Wild Card sequence figuring out that they dominated the Padres during the common season, but it will possibly’t give them false security.
As we’ve seen in the past, including when the Brewers swept the Dodgers in six video games in the 2025 common season, only to see Los Angeles sweep Milwaukee in 4 video games in the NLCS, common season success doesn’t translate to the postseason.
The Padres workforce that misplaced 5 of six to Chicago before the All-Star break shouldn’t be the same workforce that will likely be ready at Petco Park.
San Diego’s lineup improved dramatically, the pitching workers stabilized and the Padres arrive enjoying their best baseball.
The rearview mirror is useful. You just can’t drive while staring into it.
4. Make home discipline matter
This is the most vital reversal from last October.
San Diego had to win at Wrigley. Now Chicago has to survive a Petco Park crowd that has turned the Gaslamp into one of baseball’s loudest October phases.
Home discipline doesn’t swing a bat, but in a three-game sequence, familiarity issues. So does adrenaline.
San Diego Padres gamers acknowledge the followers after the Padres beat the Diamondbacks at Petco Park in San Diego, California, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026. IMAGN IMAGES via GWN Connect
Prediction:
The Cubs are proficient both offensively and defensively to win this sequence, but the Padres arrive as the warmer workforce and have the better bullpen and home discipline benefit.
Chicago took the sequence in three video games last season, but the sequel feels prefer it’s San Diego’s flip.
Prediction: Padres in three
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