Picks against the spread for every game…
New York Post could also be compensated and/or obtain an affiliate commission in the event you buy by means of our hyperlinks. Featured pricing is subject to change.
Week 18 in the NFL is the one the place you’re taking the whole lot you’ve realized so far and put it in a blender.
There are all sorts of completely different angles and motivations going down: groups locked into playoff berths resting star gamers or a number of starters … groups that need to win to make the playoffs and others who’re attempting to climb the seeding ladder to keep away from a harmful wild-card matchup … groups which are tanking for the draft.
Many of the video games embody at the very least one of these components and we’ll level them out as we go alongside. But listed below are a few normal issues to keep in thoughts:
— Not all “tanking” groups lose. In the previous two weeks, the Raiders and Giants have given up the No. 1-overall decide with victories.
— Not all “resting” groups lose. According to analysis by Steve Makinen of VSiN, over the previous 13 years, locked-in playoff groups sitting key starters in the closing week are 13-23 outright however 20-14-2 against the spread. Consider that earlier than laying double digits to the 15-1 Chiefs.
Here we go, and good luck for a profitable final stand for the 2024 common season.
Saturday
Browns (+19) over RAVENS
Ravens clinch the AFC North and No. 3 seed with a win, however would additionally get it with a Steelers loss later in the day. Not sure how laborious John Harbaugh will push for a blowout. Once the lead will get to 2 touchdowns — or if Lamar Jackson takes a hit — will he desire to hurry up the ending? The Browns don’t determine to offer a lot resistance, notably if Myles Garrett is out, however a closing rating similar to 31-13 doesn’t cowl this quantity.
Bengals (-1.5) over STEELERS
This is one of my favourite Week 18 eventualities — a group taking part in for survival vs. one which’s already in the playoffs and is attempting to improve seeding. Bengals need a win then have the Broncos and Dolphins lose Sunday. That’s a lot to ask, however we could be witnessing the begin of a miracle run by a Bengals group that was 4-8 after a 44-38 home loss to the Steelers.
Joe Burrow celebrates after his the Bengals’ 30-24 additional time win over the Bengals on Dec. 28 at Paycor Stadium. Sam Greene / USA TODAY NETWORK by way of Imagn Images
Sunday
Giants (+3) over EAGLES
This is the first check of Makinen’s stat above. The Eagles are resting Saquon Barkley with 2,005 yards as a substitute of letting him take purpose at Eric Dickerson’s file of 2,105 in 1984. With Jalen Hurts additionally out, this seems to be like a case the place coach Nick Sirianni declared the common season over after final week’s 41-7 win over the Cowboys that clinched the NFC No. 2 seed.
The Giants had been determined to interrupt their 100-season-record 10-game dropping streak final week and now might be trying to carry a profitable streak into the offseason, no matter the draft-position ramifications.
JETS (+1) over Dolphins
Miami wants a win and a Broncos loss to the Chiefs to make the postseason. If the scoreboard exhibits unhealthy information from Denver, the Dolphins may have a letdown in the low-30s, after-dark temps in windy MetLife. As it’s, they’re taking a look at Tyler Huntley in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa.
Hoping that, like the Giants final week, the Jets have a “pride game” in them at home after their embarrassing 40-14 loss at Buffalo.
Aaron Rodgers stands on the sidelines after he was pulled from the game during the fourth quarter of the Jets’ 40-14 loss to the Bills on Dec. 29, 2024. AP
FALCONS (-8.5) over Panthers
Atlanta wants a win and a Tampa Bay loss to win the NFC South, and it probably will turn out to be obvious early that the latter gained’t occur. Still, I’d anticipate the Falcons to keep taking part in as a result of their offensive stars needs to be having fun with success against Carolina’s NFL-worst scoring protection.
Commanders (-6) over COWBOYS
A Washington win would guarantee the sixth seed and a higher matchup than the 7-vs.-2 in Philadelphia. The Commanders have had so little latest success, I consider Dan Quinn will keep the pedal to metallic against a CeeDee Lamb-less Cowboys group.
Bears (+10) over PACKERS
Green Bay wants Washington to lose. If that situation begins to go by the wayside, I doubt Matt LaFleur will let Jordan Love take too many pointless hits from offended Bears. Also, Chicago is in the spot the Giants had been in final week — skilled soccer gamers attempting to finish a 10-game dropping streak.
Caleb Williams throws a go during the Bears’ 6-3 loss to the Seahawks on Dec. 26, 2024, in Chicago. AP
Jaguars (+5) over COLTS
A meaningless matchup for the playoffs. The Jags have some draft concerns, at present sitting at No. 5, however they don’t appear too involved about that. Give me the factors against a group that gave up 45 factors to the Giants.
Bills (-2.5) over PATRIOTS
Patriots at present own the No. 1 decide in the draft, and I consider they’ll maintain on to it after the Raiders and Giants let it slip. The Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed, however I’m pleased to trip with any iteration of Buffalo’s 53-man roster at this price.
BUCCANEERS (-13.5) over Saints
The Bucs would clinch the NFC South with a win, and I’ll lay no matter price is important on Baker Mayfield & Co. to do it. In their 5-1 surge, 4 of the wins have been by 15 factors or more.
A smiling Baker Mayfield exits the discipline after the Buccaneers’ 48-14 win over the Panthers on Dec. 29, 2024. AP
Texans (+1.5) over TITANS
This one’s each a psychological and sensible play. The Texans are locked in as the No. 4 seed in the AFC, however after final week’s 31-2 loss to Baltimore, coach DeMeco Ryans has to do one thing to raise the temper heading into the playoffs. So I anticipate a sturdy effort right here against a Titans group that’s 2-14 ATS, even when it’s Davis Mills in place of C.J. Stroud.
Chiefs (+10.5) over BRONCOS
On what planet would the 15-1 Chiefs be double-digit underdogs in a game? On Planet Week 18. Denver will get a wild card with a win or tie, however even with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Chris Jones sitting, there might be a lot of brand-name Chiefs on the discipline taking part in with high quality backup QB Carson Wentz.
CARDINALS (-4) over 49ers
Two groups which are out of rivalry. I’ve a delicate spot for QB Josh Dobbs and would back him if not for a prohibitive 49ers harm report. The Cards have one final shot to show out for the home followers, and the guests may not have something left at this level.
Jim Harbaugh talks with kicker Cameron Dicker earlier than he makes an attempt a discipline aim during a Chargers game in November. USA TODAY Sports by way of Reuters Con
Chargers (-4.5) over RAIDERS
The Chargers are the sixth seed in the AFC however can transfer to 5 with a win if the Steelers lose Saturday. I need to select this game now, so since I’m backing Cincinnati, I’ve to presume it will likely be all systems go for Jim Harbaugh right here. If the Steelers win, you’ll have a a lot completely different level spread Sunday morning.
RAMS (+6.5) over Seahawks
This is a difficult one. The Rams are the NFC third seed however may drop to fourth with a loss. It is probably not enough to risk Matthew Stafford’s health but it surely does have some worth. This spread is priced as if the Rams will punt on the game, however I’m not there — and I’d be comfy backing Jimmy Garoppolo if Sean McVay begins him.
Betting on the NFL?
LIONS (-3) over Vikings
Game 272 could be the best of all of them. The scary half if you wish to back the Lions is that although each offenses are wonderful, the Vikings even have a good protection and the Lions don’t. But this has been the yr of the Lions, and I’m figuring Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will work out how to return away with the NFC North title and NFC No. 1 seed.
Best bets: Chiefs, Buccaneers, Rams
Lock of the week: Chiefs (Locks 9-8 in 2024)
Last week: 9-7 total, 2-1 Best Bets
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks courting back 31 years. He gained the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most not too long ago in 2023.
Stay up to date with the newest trending topics! Visit our web site day by day for the freshest Sports information and content material, rigorously curated to keep you knowledgeable.
