The Old Bitcoin Rules No Longer Apply, Arthur | Crypto News
Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s widely cited four-year halving cycle has damaged down and that macro liquidity—not protocol mechanics—will dictate the next leg of the market. In a new essay titled “Long Live the King!” printed on October 9, 2025, the BitMEX co-founder contends that coverage decisions in Washington and Beijing are setting up a structurally simpler money regime that ought to keep pushing BTC increased, even as many merchants look for a textbook cycle peak. “The four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us,” he writes, but those making use of the outdated sample “miss why it will fail this time.”
The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead
Hayes’ framework is specific: the price of money and its amount are the dominant variables for risk property, and Bitcoin’s USD worth rises and falls with greenback liquidity. “Bitcoin in the current state of human civilization is the best form of money ever created,” he says, yet its greenback price “will ebb and flow because of the price and supply of dollars.” He extends the lens to China, arguing that the yuan credit impulse has traditionally amplified or dampened crypto cycles alongside US situations.
To make the case that halving-anchored timing is out of date, Hayes revisits 4 eras and hyperlinks each to turning factors in greenback and yuan liquidity. The “Genesis Cycle” (2009–2013) rode post-GFC quantitative easing and a surge in Chinese credit until both decelerated into 2013, “popp[ing] the Bitcoin bubble.”
The “ICO Cycle” (2013–2017) was powered less by {dollars} than by “a fuck ton of yuan sloshing around the global money markets,” as the China credit impulse spiked in 2015 amid a yuan devaluation, before tightening and increased U.S. charges ended the run. The “COVID Hoax” period (2017–2021)—Hayes’ label for the pandemic-era coverage response—noticed “helicopter money” under President Donald Trump and a fast doubling of greenback provide with charges pinned at zero, propelling all risk property, including crypto, until inflation compelled tightening in late 2021.
In the current “New World Order” section (2021–?), Hayes argues that liquidity plumbing, not halvings, explains Bitcoin’s resilience. He highlights the US Treasury’s issuance tilt toward short-dated payments, which drained the Fed’s reverse repo facility and “unleashed ~$2.5 trillion of liquidity into the markets,” and he characterizes this as a political selection to “run the economy hot.”
He hyperlinks the macro pivot immediately to today’s setup: “The Fed resumed cutting interest rates in September even though inflation is above its own target,” while the administration seeks to “lower the cost of housing” and loosen bank regulation to spur lending to “critical industries.” In Hayes’ studying, the coverage indicators are unambiguous: “money shall be cheaper and more plentiful.”
China, in his view, gained’t reprise the intense credit surges of 2009 or 2015, but it also gained’t be a headwind. While Beijing grappled with deflationary strain and a property-sector reckoning, Hayes expects pragmatism to prevail: “When the economic pressure proves too intense… Chinese policymakers print money.” The upshot, he says, is that China could not drive global fiat creation, “but it won’t hinder it either.”
The unifying thesis is that cycles have always been financial cycles carrying different masks. Bitcoin’s earlier peaks coincided with decelerating greenback and yuan liquidity; its latest advance displays a new alignment of political priorities with simpler money, regardless of the halving calendar.
Hayes places it bluntly: “Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.” His closing line distills the declare to a coronation metaphor: “The king is dead, long live the king!”
At press time, BTC traded at $122,147.
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