Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Dump Is Over: On-Chain | Crypto News
Bitcoin’s long-term holder cohort seems to have stopped internet promoting, according to a number of on-chain commentators, in a shift that might take away a key source of structural provide stress heading into 2026.
The change hinges on a supply-change read of long-term holders (cash held longer than six months), which had been damaging for months but has now turned modestly constructive, said on-chain analyst Darkfost.
Is This The Bitcoin Bottom Signal?
Darkfost argues that current claims about long-term holders “selling more than ever” miss what the data is definitely displaying, particularly when large, discrete exchange-related actions skew the image. “On this chart, which I adjusted to isolate the movement of nearly 800,000 BTC from Coinbase that was distorting LTH data, we can observe a clear shift in supply change,” Darkfost wrote. “Since July 16, the monthly LTH supply change (30 day sum) had been firmly anchored in a distribution phase until recently.”
In plain phrases, that meant the share of provide held by long-term holders had been declining for a lot of the second half of 2025, a regime that tends to coincide with persistent promote stress as older cash rotate into the market. That section, Darkfost said, has now ended, at least for the second.
“We have now moved back into positive territory, with around 10,700 BTC transitioning into long term held coins,” Darkfost wrote, calling it “a very modest change,” but “not insignificant.” The implication is that long-term holders have eased off distribution enough for their combination holdings to start rising again, even as short-term holders “continue to hold their BTC,” in Darkfost’s framing.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju echoed the directional takeaway in a shorter post, saying, “Bitcoin long-term holders stopped selling.”
VanEck’s head of digital research Matthew Sigel characterised the flip as a significant shift in positioning stress via X. “BTC: Long-term holders turn net accumulators, easing a major Bitcoin headwind and ending, for now, the largest sell pressure event from this cohort since 2019,” Sigel wrote.
Renowned skilled James Van Straten added historic context to the size of the transfer, saying the magnitude of distribution “marked the 2019 bottom as well,” suggesting the current inflection is notable even if it doesn’t, by itself, guarantee a repeat.
Darkfost also pointed to historic patterning around these flips. “Historically, such shifts have often preceded the formation of consolidation phases or even bullish recoveries, depending on how the broader trend evolves,” he wrote, emphasizing situations somewhat than certainty.
At press time, BTC traded at $88,623.
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