Bitcoin-S&P 500 Correlation Coefficient | Crypto News
The Bitcoin market commenced an prolonged bearish section in October 2025, after an initial flash crash triggered a 19% decline from the current all-time high at $126,000. In the next months, Bitcoin would expertise a regular loss mixed with major drawdown moments, ultimately pulling its price to a local backside of $60,000, before coming into a mid-term consolidation section.Â
In the last month, Bitcoin has shown a reasonable recovery with a web gain of 4.89%, with costs trading as high as $75,000. While this latest efficiency could also be indicative of a stabilizing market, latest data on the correlation between the premier cryptocurrency and the S&P 500 has introduced new bearish issues.
Historical Correlation Coefficient Data Hints At Potential Market CrashÂ
In an X post on March 21, market analyst Tony Severino studies that latest developments with the BTC-S&P 500 Correlation Coefficient point out Bitcoin is in hazard of another major downswing. Notably, the Correlation Coefficient is a determine between -1 and +1 that measures how strongly and in what direction two property, i.e., Bitcoin and the S&P 500 in this case, transfer relative to each other over time.
Observation
Historically, when Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 drops to -0.5 on the Correlation Coefficient, and then turns sharply up, it’s a warning signal that the stock market goes to collapse and take BTC with it
Usually there's a bounce first to add to the pain pic.twitter.com/Tefbzo2nd3
— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) March 21, 2026
At +1, the coefficient signifies that the property transfer precisely together in the same direction, while at -1, a excellent detrimental correlation happens, with the property transferring in reverse instructions. At 0, actions are thought-about unrelated, with no identifiable sample, as both property pattern independently of each other.
Amid the bear market that has continued since late 2025 and early 2026, the 20-day Bitcoin-S&P Correlation Coefficient dipped to around -0.5 as Bitcoin costs fell while equities rose. However, Severino notes that this coefficient had not too long ago rebounded to around -0.10, creating a market sequence that has beforehand preceded major Bitcoin downturns.
According to the seasoned professional, each time the 20-day BTC S&P 500 correlation dropped to -0.5 before sharply reversing, it has triggered stock market crashes that induced a important sell-off in the Bitcoin market. However, there’s often an initial price bounce lasting 10-17 weeks before the drawdown commences. Severino’s analysis suggests the restricted rebound noticed since early February represents this preliminary gain, which is now 8-weeks outdated.
As noticed in 2018, 2020, and 2022, the ensuing correction from this setup threatens a potential price fall of 70-80% from the height of this initial price bounce.
Bitcoin Market Outlook
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $68,584 after a 2.41% decline in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the daily trading quantity has declined by 41.21%, representing a fall in the merchants’ participation as Bitcoin continues to consolidate following its failed breakout above $75,000 in the last week.
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