Fidelity Flags Bitcoin Price Zone That | Crypto News
Fidelity Digital Assets says Bitcoin’s latest drawdown has pushed the market into a zone that has traditionally aligned with accumulation phases, even as its momentum signal stays detrimental and broader crypto risk urge for food stays slender.
In its Signals Report Q2 2026, Fidelity’s research crew described a market still working through a corrective part somewhat than coming into a broad-based growth. Bitcoin stays the dominant source of unrealized profitability across the digital asset advanced, while other major belongings continue to stabilize after a sharp reset in Q1.
Fidelity Says Bitcoin Looks Undervalued
The report’s clearest Bitcoin price signal comes from the asset’s “Yardstick,” a valuation framework that compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to hash fee. Fidelity rated the metric optimistic, noting that falling costs and a pullback in hash fee have pushed the indicator into what it calls an “undervalued” zone.
“Historically, this undervalued zone has aligned with accumulation phases and relative bottoms,” the report acknowledged.
According to Fidelity, Bitcoin spent 71 of the earlier 91 days, or 78% of the period, below detrimental one customary deviation of the Yardstick’s imply. The condition first appeared in October 2025 and was amplified by two cold-weather occasions in the United States that quickly curtailed mining exercise as operators lowered energy usage to assist local grid stability.
That nuance issues. Fidelity doesn’t body the hash-rate decline purely as a signal of deteriorating miner confidence. The report said some analysts have linked the decline to miners shifting toward AI workloads, but argued the transfer might also mirror demand-response packages, particularly in areas such as Texas where miners routinely energy down during peak grid demand.
The price backdrop stays troublesome. Fidelity’s momentum signal for Bitcoin turned detrimental on October 18, 2025, when BTC traded close to $107,000. Since then, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 36%, with most of Q1 2026 spent in a outlined vary between $62,500 and $76,022. The firm said that sample is more constant with consolidation than a renewed pattern.
“This signal is not designed to identify precise tops or bottoms,” Fidelity wrote, including that the current studying factors to stabilization somewhat than recent upside momentum.
Bitcoin’s NUPL rating also displays a cautious market. Fidelity said BTC’s internet unrealized revenue/loss stood at 0.21 at the end of Q1 2026, putting traders in the “Hope-Fear” zone. That studying suggests some holders stay in revenue, but the market has not yet established broad conviction that a sturdy backside is in place.
The historic setup is more constructive. Fidelity discovered that prior durations when Bitcoin’s NUPL hovered around 0.21, plus or minus 0.01, coincided with a median one-year return of 63% and a three-year compound annual growth fee of 74%. The firm emphasised, however, that these historic relationships might weaken or fail to persist, notably when macro circumstances dominate digital asset flows.
Separately, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer pointed to a more tactical Bitcoin setup, sharing a chart that exhibits BTC testing the higher boundary of what he described as a potential bear flag. The chart locations Bitcoin close to $79,486 after its rebound from the February low around $60,033, with momentum indicators transferring back into overbought territory.
Timmer framed the current setup as an important technical take a look at. “Technical Analysis 101 states that when bear market rallies get overbought, it’s usually the kiss of death and time to sell,” he wrote. “However, during bull markets overbought momentum means that the market is strong and likely to stay strong.”
His conclusion sharpened the price query raised by Fidelity’s broader report: whether or not Bitcoin is still trapped in a corrective construction or starting to transition into a new bull part. “If Bitcoin cannot be pulled down by this current combination of overbought momentum and trendline resistance, then this is an emerging bull market and not a bear market rally,” Timmer said, including that this has been his “hunch all along” and “may be about to get confirmed.”
At press time, BTC traded at $76,036.
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