Glassnode: Bitcoin Is Back At $96K, Hitting The | Crypto News
Bitcoin’s early-2026 bounce has pushed back into a acquainted downside space: a dense pocket of overhead provide that Glassnode says has repeatedly capped rallies since November. In its latest Week On-chain report, the analytics firm frames the transfer above $96,000 as constructive on the floor, but still largely dependent on derivatives positioning and liquidity circumstances reasonably than persistent spot accumulation.
Glassnode’s central argument is that Bitcoin has rallied straight into a traditionally important band of long-term holder (LTH) price foundation, constructed during April to July 2025 and related with sustained distribution close to cycle highs. The report describes a “dense cluster” spanning roughly $93K to $110K, with rebounds since November repeatedly stalling close to the decrease boundary.
“This region has consistently acted as a transition barrier, separating corrective phases from durable bull regimes,” Glassnode wrote. “With price once again pressing into this overhead supply, the market now faces a familiar test of resilience, where absorbing long-term holder distribution remains a prerequisite for any broader trend reversal.” The firm’s framing is blunt: the market is back at the same promote ceiling, and clearing it requires real absorption, not just price probing.
The next stage the report highlights is the short-term holder (STH) price foundation at $98.3K, which it treats as a confidence gauge for newer patrons. Sustained trading above it could point out that latest demand is strong enough to keep late entrants in revenue while soaking up overhead provide.
On-chain, Glassnode notes long-term holders stay internet sellers, with whole LTH provide still trending decrease. The key change is velocity. The report says the speed of decline has “slowed materially” versus the aggressive distribution seen in Q3 and This autumn 2025, suggesting profit-taking is continuous but with less depth.
“What follows will depend primarily on the demand side’s ability to absorb this supply, particularly from investors accumulated over Q2 2025,” the report said. “Failure to hold above the True Market Mean at ~$81k, in the long term, would significantly increase the risk of a deeper capitulation phase, reminiscent of the April 2022 to April 2023 period.” It is one of the clearest draw back conditionals in the word: if the market loses the long-run imply, the probability distribution shifts toward a more extreme unwind.
A associated signal is the Net Realized Profit and Loss of Long-Term Holders, which Glassnode says displays a “markedly cooler distribution regime.” Long-term holders are realizing roughly 12.8K BTC per week in internet revenue, a sharp slowdown from cycle peaks above 100K BTC per week. That moderation doesn’t indicate capitulation risk is gone, but it does counsel the heaviest section of profit-taking has eased.
Bitcoin Demand Remains Uneven
Off-chain indicators lean more constructive. Glassnode argues institutional balance-sheet flows have “gone through a full reset” after months of heavy outflows across spot ETFs, corporates, and sovereign entities, with internet flows stabilizing as sell-side strain seems exhausted. Spot ETFs are described as the first cohort to flip optimistic again, re-establishing themselves as the first marginal purchaser.
Corporate and sovereign treasury flows, by distinction, are portrayed as sporadic and event-driven reasonably than constant. The upshot is a market where balance-sheet demand can help stabilize price, but could not yet perform as a sustained growth engine, leaving short-term direction more delicate to derivatives positioning and liquidity circumstances.
At the venue stage, Glassnode factors to enhancing spot habits. Binance and mixture exchange circulation measures have shifted back into buy-dominant regimes, and Coinbase, described as a constant source of sell-side aggression during the consolidation, has “meaningfully slowed its selling activity.” The report calls this a constructive structural shift, while stressing it still falls short of the persistent, aggressive accumulation usually related with full pattern expansions.
The most pointed warning in the report is that the transfer into the $96K area was “mechanically reinforced” by short liquidations in a comparatively skinny liquidity setting. Futures turnover stays effectively below the elevated exercise seen across most of 2025, implying it took comparatively little capital to drive shorts out and push price through resistance.
“This indicates that the breakout occurred in a comparatively light liquidity environment, where modest positioning shifts were able to drive disproportionately large price responses,” Glassnode said. “In practical terms, it did not take significant new capital to force shorts out of the market and lift price through resistance.” The implication is that continuation now relies upon on whether or not spot demand and sustained quantity can exchange pressured overlaying once the squeeze impulse fades.
Options markets add a second layer of stress. Glassnode describes implied volatility as low but “deferred,” while skew continues to price draw back asymmetry, with 25-delta skew biased toward places in mid and longer maturities. In short: members seem comfy holding publicity, but stay unwilling to do so without insurance coverage.
Positioning also issues at the microstructure stage. The report flags sellers as short gamma around spot, with a zone roughly from $94K to $104K. In that setup, hedging flows can amplify strikes reasonably than dampen them, shopping for into rallies and promoting into dips, raising the percentages of quicker journey toward high-interest strikes such as $100K if momentum takes maintain.
At press time, BTC traded at $96,334.
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