November Preview: Will Bitcoin Break The Cycle Or | Crypto News
A widely shared seasonality snapshot is making the rounds forward of month-end: a Coinglass heat map of Bitcoin’s month-to-month returns, reposted by trader Daan Crypto Trades. The desk spans 2013–2025 and reveals November as the statistical outlier in Bitcoin’s calendar—both for eye-popping beneficial properties and for sharp drawdowns in sure years.
Bitcoin November Preview
“November is Bitcoin’s best month based on historical performance. By far,” Daan wrote on X, pointing to an average November change of +46.02% across the dataset. That determine is visibly distorted by November 2013’s +449.35% surge, the only largest month-to-month transfer on the board. He added: “The average gain over all these months is +46.02%. But this is heavily skewed by a single monthly gain in November 2013. Bitcoin went up +449.35%!! that month.”
The uncooked counts back up the popularity without the hyperbole. Out of the 12 Novembers listed (2013–2024), 8 completed inexperienced—2013 (+449.35%), 2014 (+12.82%), 2015 (+19.27%), 2016 (+5.42%), 2017 (+53.48%), 2020 (+42.95%), 2023 (+8.81%), and 2024 (+37.29%)—while 4 have been destructive—2018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%), and 2022 (-16.23%).
The median November change sits at +10.82%, a more conservative central tendency that dampens the 2013 impact. Excluding 2013 completely, the simple average for November drops to roughly +9.35% across the remaining 11 years, underscoring how one month can skew mean-based seasonality.
Context from the broader desk issues. November’s average is the best of any month on Coinglass’s grid, forward of October’s +20.30% average, while December reveals a far more blended profile with a +4.75% average but a -3.22% median—an imbalance constant with outlier-driven months.
September, long maligned by merchants, retains a destructive average (-3.08%) over the full period. The 2024 row itself captures the push-and-pull of this cycle’s narrative: double-digit beneficial properties in February, March, May, October, and November, offset by significant drawdowns in April, June, and August, and a destructive December print to close the yr (-2.85%).
Lessons From Prior Cycles
Daan’s framing extends past simple seasonality. “November & December is when the 2013, 2017 & 2021 cycles topped out. It’s also where the 2018 & 2022 cycles bottomed out,” he famous. That remark strains up with the historic inflection factors most market contributors bear in mind: the late-2013 mania and subsequent crash, the December 2017 peak, the November 2021 all-time high, and the December 2018 and November 2022 washouts.
The Coinglass grid can not timestamp intramonth highs or lows, but the clustering of major pivots into the ultimate two months of the yr is constant with the market’s folklore and with the returns sample that reveals both exceptionally strong up months and some of the cycle’s most punishing down months in this window.
The sensible takeaway—again in Daan’s phrases—is just not categorical bullishness, but regime risk: “All in all, an eventful last 2 months of the year generally speaking. Whether it’s on the bullish or bearish side, volatility and big market pivots have been the theme into the end of the year.” The heat map helps that characterization.
November’s distribution spans the widest extremes on file—from +449.35% at the top to -36.57% on the draw back—with a two-thirds hit fee for inexperienced months and a median gain in the low double digits. December, by distinction, has produced both cycle tops and cycle bottoms despite a modest average, a reminder that average and median statistics can obscure the trail risk that defines Bitcoin’s fourth quarter.
Seasonality is just not future, and the pattern is proscribed. Still, the data-backed message is clear: as November approaches, Bitcoin’s historic sample has been less about quiet pattern continuation and more about variance—the type that has marked both euphoric blow-offs and capitulation lows.
At press time, BTC traded at $114,487.
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