Schmigadoon vs. The Lost Boys…
There is one upside to this awfully iffy season on Broadway.
And it’s that we get an particularly cutthroat Tony Awards on Sunday evening.
Whereas last yr “Maybe Happy Ending” and “Sunset Boulevard” had been shoo-ins for their prizes, our current lack of apparent business hits or widespread consensus on reveals’ inventive benefit means there are a lot of hard-to-call races.
This ain’t the Oscars. There is a tiny pool of about 850 Tony voters, some of whom wind up not voting at all. So, in years like 2026, a handful of people could make a big distinction. There may very well be upsets galore!
Here’s who I feel can have a good evening at Radio City Music Hall. But even the favorites shouldn’t get too snug.
Ana Gasteyer stars in “Schmigadoon” on Broadway. Todd Owyoung/NBC via Getty Images
Best Musical: “Schmigadoon”
Hitting up show events the past few weeks, I requested many people who they’re voting for and who’s profitable. Most of the time I heard “Schmigadoon,” the parody of Golden Age musicals based on the canceled Apple TV+ show. Of course, they often said so with the shrugging tone of, “Let’s just have pasta.”
I get it. During one of the roughest seasons for new musicals in current reminiscence, “Schmigadoon” affords a comfort-food familiarity because, of course, it’s mocking previous reveals. It seems to be like your typical Broadway musical. An $8 jar of Rao’s marinara.
“Lost Boys” followers are more effusive, lauding its spirit of enjoyable and ambition. Quite a bit of people have voted for “Lost Boys.”
Could the high-flying vampire spectacle put a stake in the corny coronary heart of “Schmigadoon”? Not unattainable. I’d sure prefer it to. But all indicators level to that piece of “Schmig.”
“Liberation” on Broadway. The Press Room NYC
Best Play: “Liberation”
It’s exceedingly uncommon for a closed new play to win the Tony. Outside of the bizarre COVID-era ceremonies, you’ve to go back to Tom Stoppard’s “The Coast of Utopia” in 2007 to discover one.
“Liberation,” Bess Wohl’s dramedy about a Nineteen Seventies Women’s Lib group, which performed its last efficiency in February, will buck the pattern. Everybody is aware of it’s better written than its closest competitor, the indictment of Roald Dahl’s antisemitism, “Giant,” and a current Pulitzer Prize win has thrust “Liberation” back into the minds of voters.
The distinctive revival of “Cats” has been retitled “Cats: The Jellicle Ball.” ABC via Getty Images
Best Revival of a Musical: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
Many on Broadway love the Lincoln Center manufacturing of “Ragtime.” However, just as many love to complain about it. The staging bears the brunt of the gripes, given the Vivian Beaumont’s long resume of stunners.
The stellar revival of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s “Cats,” retitled “Cats: The Jellicle Ball,” has devotees and haters too. Young voters want it more than older voters. But most agree it’s at least doing one thing thrilling by placing a new spin on a Nineteen Eighties show that no person thought was potential — making the cats people in the world of Harlem ballroom. Some would argue this model even improves upon “Cats.”
Boundary-pushing revivals that develop what a show will be (“Sunset Boulevard,” “Oklahoma,” “Company”) have a tendency to win. Standard issue ones have a tendency to lose.
Nathan Lane stars in “Death of a Salesman.” Emilio Madrid
Best Revival of a Play: “Death of a Salesman”
“Liberation”’s victory, I suspect, provides “Death of a Salesman” a leg up over the London switch of “Oedipus,” which wrapped up its restricted run in the winter. Two closed performs claiming victory is dangerous optics. The Tonys are one big business for Broadway. Viewers ought to have the option to really buy tickets to some of the winners.
The excellence of director Joe Mantello’s “Salesman” has already translated into strong gross sales. An Arthur Miller drama at the Winter Garden is routinely outgrossing all of the new musicals and revivals of the season, while having revered stage vets Nathan Lane and Laurie Metcalf in the leads. Not, you recognize, George Clooney and Jessica Chastain.
That feat ought to and possible will likely be celebrated.
Joshua Henry (left) and Caissie Levy (heart) are heavy favorites. Matthew Murphy
Best Actor and Actress in a Musical: Joshua Henry and Caissie Levy, “Ragtime”
Easy peasy. Joshua Henry, who performs Coalhouse Walker in “Ragtime,” is the surest guess of the evening for Best Actor. Yes, Luke Evans is a deal with in “The Rocky Horror Show,” but that revival’s gonna clean. And while Nicholas Christopher is a revelation in “Chess,” he’s going to be up for a lot of awards in his promising future. It’s Henry by a mile.
And for Best Actress, it’s his co-star Caissie Levy, as Mother, by three quarters of a mile. Marla Mindelle, who performs Celine Dion in “Titanique,” acquired some votes. But Levy’s position is solely far meatier. Ballads, tears, Tony.
John Lithgow possible wins for his portrayal of creator Roald Dahl in “Giant.” Getty Images for Tony Award Productions
Best Actor and Actress in a Play: John Lithgow and Lesley Manville
John Lithgow, who performs kids’s creator Dahl, edges out Nathan Lane as Willy Loman by a hair, I feel, in Best Actor in a Play. His terrific efficiency carries the show and he’s the main purpose audiences are going to see it.
Can you consider “Oedipus” marked Lesley Manville’s Broadway debut? She was ferocious as that mommie dearest, Jocasta, and in all probability goes home with her very first Tony.
Ali Louis Bourzgui (proper) has a lot of momentum for his efficiency in “The Lost Boys.” Matthew Murphy via AP
Featured Actor and Actress in a Musical: Ali Louis Bourzgui (“The Lost Boys”) and Shoshana Bean (“The Lost Boys”)
An important bit of historical past: No musical has received all 4 appearing slots since the unique manufacturing of “South Pacific” in 1950 — 76 years in the past. That’s the one and only time that has ever occurred.
I don’t see that spectacular document being damaged by the revival of “Ragtime.” If that wins a third award, it’s Ben Levi Ross for Featured Actor. However, I’ve heard a lot of gushing reward for Ali Louis Bourzgui as David the vampire in “Lost Boys.” Or possibly Andre de Shields of “Jellicle Ball” catwalks in. Tough class.
Shoshana Bean, meanwhile, is up against Nichelle Lewis (“Ragtime”) and Ana Gasteyer (“Schmigadoon”). It’s been said so many occasions that this would act as a profession award for Bean that it seems to be possible to come true.
Alden Ehrenreich made a memorable Broadway debut in “Becky Shaw.” Getty Images for Tony Award Productions
Featured Actor and Actress in a Play: Alden Ehrenreich (“Becky Shaw”) and Laurie Metcalf (“Death of a Salesman”)
In his vicious Broadway debut in “Becky Shaw,” Ehrenreich has been one of the season’s greatest surprises. He has strong competitors in Christopher Abbott (Biff in “Salesman”) and Ruben Santiago-Hudson (Bynum in “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone”). They both might pull it off. But all the discuss recently has been of Alden.
And Laurie Metcalf. Need I say more?
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