Two risky $30 million musicals are battling on…
The Broadway season doesn’t kick off for a few more weeks, when the horror play “Paranormal Activity” begins previews at the August Wilson Theatre.
To call the state of new musicals these days alarming can be an understatement. But we already have a sizzling early race. Or, nicely, hot-ish.
Of the 4 new musicals that are on sale — “Galileo,” “Wanted,” “Paddington” and “Dolly: A True Original Musical” — there are two apparent pack leaders: The all-American Dolly Parton show and the well mannered British bear journey from darkest England.
A Dolly Parton bio-musical is coming to Broadway. REUTERS
What’s shocking about that top pair is who’s said to be forward.
That can be “Dolly,” which, sources said, has an advance of more than $3 million — some $400,000 more than the marmalade-loving scamp, “Paddington.” Others declare the hole is far wider.
More From Johnny Oleksinski
However, another source close to “Paddington” refuted that quantity and said it’s neck and neck with “Dolly” at $3 million price of tickets bought.
Who am I to choose a combat with a bear? Even one in a purple hat.
What’s so left-field about these figures is that “Paddington” is a giant hit in London — one of the most well liked reveals there in years — and is essentially bought out through late September with just scattered seats accessible through the end of the yr. No Broadway musical can say the same. Most are too busy crying on Zoom calls.
I noticed “Paddington” last winter at the Savoy Theatre and adored it. The musical is a sweeter, poppier “Matilda” with spectacular tech.
Then there’s “Dolly.” The country-music show with tunes such as “I Will Always Love You” and “Jolene” was mocked to high heaven after its out-of-town Tennessee tryout last summer season. One spy told me it might be better off “in a drag bar in Vegas.” Viperous critics tellingly weren’t invited down south, and its Broadway bow was delayed.
“Paddington” has been a enormous hit in London. Mike Marsland/WireImage
The state of affairs would appear to be a clear-cut hit vs. bomb, proper?
Not essentially.
Cuddly “Paddington” is an monumental risk in NYC.
For one, according to an SEC submitting, “Paddington” is capitalized at a grizzly $31 million, close to 2025’s dear flop “Death Becomes Her.” The hit London manufacturing, a source said, was capitalized at $16.7 million.
That’s awfully costly.
“Barmylade!,” as one surprised wag put it.
And then there’s the model’s strength. The youngsters’s books by Michael Bond aren’t widely read by American children. And their millennial dad and mom have no nostalgia for them just like the British ones I noticed sobbing in their seats.
“Paddington” is capitalized for $31 million on Broadway. Johan Persson
Recently the fantastic film trilogy has improved the little man’s visibility right here a bit.
Yet the last movie, “Paddington in Peru,” grossed $5 million more in the UK — a nation with one fifth the population of the US, where it bought a modest $45.8 million of tickets.
Plus, household reveals are always robust on Broadway. Our profitable household fare tends to either be Disney or for everybody, like “Wicked.” Heck, dad and mom of 8-year-olds to this day principally ask me about how they’ll rating seats to “Hamilton.”
“Paddington” will need to rapidly show its appeal past the very younger. “Frozen,” big flop, couldn’t handle that.
Johan Persson
Of course, “Paddington” producers Sonia Friedman and Eliza Lumley suppose I’m merely padding column inches. They say their show, which opens in the spring at the Al Hirschfeld, is in hibernation.
“We’re still nine months from our Broadway opening, we haven’t yet launched our campaign, nor have we announced the cast, and we’re very pleased with where we are at this stage,” they collectively said.
“ ‘Paddington’ followed a very similar trajectory in London. Sales accelerated dramatically once previews began — in fact, they exploded — as audiences experienced the show for themselves.”
Hmmm, they’ve actually achieved a little more than blast out a press release.
In the leadup to their announcement, the manufacturing blanketed the town with teasing flyers saying “Have you seen this bear?,” in reference to a tense plot level at the end of Act One.
And the character Paddington — who’s carried out by an actress in a go well with while an offstage actor operates the face and supplies the kindly voice — appeared on “Good Morning America,” like a furry Matt Damon.
“Paddington” even tried to muscle in on Knicksmania this month in an Instagram video.
“Dolly” has been promoting nicely despite doing little advertising. Matthew Murphy
“Dolly,” which opens in the winter at the St. James, has achieved significantly less.
“A True Original,” produced by Parton and the UK’s Ambassador Theatre Group (which — the drama! — also owns Sonia Friedman Productions), announced its Broadway run with a social media video from Parton only two weeks in the past and went on sale July 10.
There’s been little advertising spend past that, I’m told. Parton, 80, hasn’t achieved any national TV interviews, and her show is promoting nicely anyway, significantly with teams.
“Dolly”’s mixed price tag for its Nashville tryout and New York productions is a hefty $30 million — including $17 million for Broadway. Like “Paddington,” it has an uphill climb.
The musical had tough phrase of mouth after its 2025 tryout in Nashville, Tennessee. Dara-Michelle Farr/AdMedia / SplashNews.com
Parton and her collaborators, sources said, are addressing the gripes from the earlier run. More of her common songs might be in the first act, and the story received’t be as beat-to-beat biographical as before.
That bitter initial phrase of mouth, fortunately for Dolly, doesn’t appear to have wafted far past the gossiping cobras of the theater industry.
“Dolly Parton is a singular figure in our culture,” said British producer Adam Speers of ATG. “There’s nobody else quite like her: her humor, her remarkable empathy and an ability to make everyone feel like they’ve known her their entire lives.”
That’s key. Every American is aware of Dolly in their DNA like she’s a prettier George Washington. But a lot of people will need to be correctly launched to Paddington and the Brown household for their $31 million musical to run the a number of years required to change into a hit.
Friedman and Lumley imagine their show can do just that.
“Whilst ‘Paddington’ is set in London, its themes are universal,” they said — tossing in a “st” for good measure. “At its heart it’s a story about kindness, tolerance, acceptance and finding home. Those are values that resonate everywhere.”
I fully agree. Though it wouldn’t damage if the main character’s title was Simba!
We present you with the trending topics. Get the best latest Entertainment news and content on our web site daily.
