Kentucky Derby draw: Favorite Renegade draws

The only real suspense in the draw of Kentucky Derby post positions is which runner will get the “dreaded rail,” where the horse is in hazard of being squeezed, bumped or shuffled back — or perhaps all three — as opponents close in from his outdoors.

The pressure for this 12 months’s Derby didn’t last long Saturday at Churchill Downs. The second place assigned was No. 1.

The horse drawn for that spot? The favourite, Renegade.

“That’s brutal,” analyst Larry Collmus said on FanDuel TV.

It was also business — and dangerous Derby luck — as regular for Renegade’s proprietor Mike Repole, who is still in search of his first win in the race. Twice in the last three years, and also in 2011, Repole introduced a promising horse to the Derby and had to scratch him before post time.

At least Renegade is in the sector, and Nick Tammaro, making the Derby morning line for the first time, still has the Arkansas Derby winner as the 4-1 favourite in the sector of 20. But it gained’t shock anybody if either of two horses educated by Brad Cox, Florida Derby winner Commandment (No. 6) or Blue Grass champion Further Ado (No. 18), go away the gate with decrease odds. They are co-second selections at 6-1.

No horse has gained from the rail since Ferdinand in 1986, though that’s not the longest drought for any post place. No. 14 last produced a winner in 1961, while others without a winner for a long time embody No. 12 (1971), No. 9 (1972) and No. 2 (1978). And No. 17 has never seen a winner in 46 makes an attempt.

The discipline, which is set by a sequence of races that awards factors to top finishers, was unsure as late as Saturday morning. That’s when coach Steve Asmussen opted to wait for the Preakness with Chip Honcho, who hasn’t raced since a poor displaying 5 weeks in the past in the Louisiana Derby.

That resolution moved Litmus Test into the sector, giving Bob Baffert two starters as he bids for his seventh Derby win, which might break a tie with Ben Jones for the most in the race’s 152-year historical past. Baffert also has Potente, who gained the San Felipe Stakes last month at Santa Anita before ending second to So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby.

So Happy has the best morning-line odds (15-1) of the 5 horses coming from Southern California, adopted by Potente (20-1), Litmus Test (30-1), Doug O’Neill’s Pavlovian and Jeff Mullins’ Intrepido (50-1).

Baffert is one of three trainers with a number of entries, along with Cox (three) and Riley Mott (two), whose father, Bill, gained last 12 months’s race with Sovereignty and has Chief Wallabee (8-1) this 12 months.

Cox is aware of better than anybody that beginning a number of horses in the Derby ensures nothing more than having to secure more seats for more homeowners. He began three in 2022 and his best end was seventh. The next 12 months he began 4 and his best end was third.

There have been 30 other instances when a coach began three or more horses in the same Derby, and just 4 instances did that coach win: D. Wayne Lukas, from three starters in 1995 and 5 in 1996, and Todd Pletcher, from 4 runners in 2010 and three in 2017.

Cox is one of seven trainers in the sector with a earlier Derby victory, though he’s the only one who doesn’t have a winner’s circle photograph. Mandaloun was not declared the 2021 Derby until early 2022 when Baffert’s Medina Spirit was disqualified for a drug optimistic.

The Louisville native said last week that have been he to win Saturday, it will “without a doubt” really feel like he was profitable for the first time since he missed out on “the thrill of victory.”

“Hopefully looking forward to that,” Cox said, “and it would be great if it’s (Saturday).”

Along with Baffert, the other profitable trainers in this 12 months’s discipline are Bill Mott, O’Neill and Pletcher with two each, and Gustavo Delgado and Kenny McPeek with one.

Four horses (including O’Neill’s Robusta) have been entered and positioned on the also-eligible listing. They might be in a position to run only if there are any scratches before 9 a.m. EDT Friday.

Kentucky Derby discipline

Here’s the full discipline for the Kentucky Derby, with jockey and morning-line odds:

1. Renegade (Irad Ortiz Jr.) 4-1

2. Albus (Manny Franco) 30-1

3. Intrepido (Hector Berrios) 50-1

4. Litmus Test (Martin Garcia) 30-1

5. Right to Party (Chris Elliott) 30-1

6. Commandment (Luis Saez) 6-1

7. Danon Bourbon (Atsuya Nishimura) 20-1

8. So Happy (Mike Smith) 15-1

9. The Puma (Javier Castellano) 10-1

10. Wonder Dean (Ryusei Sakai) 30-1

11. Incredibolt (Jaime Torres) 20-1

12. Chief Wallabee (Junior Alvarado) 8-1

13. Silent Tactic (Cristian Torres) 20-1

14. Potente (Juan Hernandez) 20-1

15. Emerging Market (Flavien Prat) 15-1

16. Pavlovian (Edwin Maldonado) 30-1

17. Six Speed (Brian Hernandez Jr.) 50-1

18. Further Ado (John Velazquez) 6-1

19. Golden Tempo (Jose Ortiz) 30-1

20. Fulleffort (Tyler Gaffalione) 20-1

AE21. Great White (Alex Achard)

AE22. Ocelli (Joe Ramos)

AE23. Robusta (Emisael Jaramillo)

AE24. Corona de Oro (Brian Hernandez Jr.)