Bitcoin On The Brink: Analyst Warns This Key Level | Crypto News
Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) told viewers late on September 25 that Bitcoin’s pullback is monitoring a acquainted seasonal and structural script—and that the market’s next major impulse hinges on a clearly outlined help vary. “Hold $107k to $98K,” he said, calling the zone the fulcrum for the bull cycle’s next leg. “That’s it. It’s that simple.”
Opening his stream amid a rush of bearish sentiment as BTC price dipped to $108,651, Kevin argued the drawdown shouldn’t shock disciplined merchants. He framed the current transfer in the context of months of warning courting back to early August, when he started highlighting weekly bearish divergences across Bitcoin, Ethereum and the whole altcoin market (Total2), into what he described as four-plus-year resistance zones.
“Everyone thinks these symmetrical triangle patterns after a move higher are continuation patterns,” he said, “but in reality, in the crypto market, very, very rarely do these break out to the upside.” He pointed to a development of smaller impulse highs since late 2023 and reiterated that despite sharp rallies in choose altcoins, the majors failed to clear “any major resistance levels.”
Bitcoin Top In Until Proven Otherwise
The anchor of Kevin’s case is confluence on larger time frames. On Bitcoin’s weekly chart, he outlined rising price highs against falling momentum—“simple strength and momentum indicators,” not indicators by themselves but context that “has been dwindling for a very long time.”
Total2, he added, registered “a triple top on the weekly” beneath roughly $1.71–$1.74 trillion—“the all-be-all resistance level”—with weekly RSI and MACD rolling over. Stocks of momentum, in his read, are resetting exactly where they need to amid traditionally skinny late-summer liquidity. “Q3 is never a good quarter for crypto,” Kevin said. “August, September are terrible months. They always are.”
Against that backdrop, he argued that USDT dominance stays the most dependable inter-market compass. “USDT dominance is the greatest chart ever. There is no better chart,” he said, strolling through a macro descending triangle with a flat-bottom help close to 3.9–3.7% and repeated rallies to a falling trendline that have mapped crypto cycle lows and highs for two years.
Each method to the flat backside, he famous, has carved a W- or inverse-head-and-shoulders-style base in USDT.D while Bitcoin distributed close to local tops; each rejection at the downtrend has coincided with crypto inflections. “You literally don’t need any chart in all of crypto,” he said. “All you need is Bitcoin and USDT dominance and you would have played this cycle absolutely perfectly.”
From a tactical standpoint, Kevin flagged a three-month BTC liquidity “heat map” shelf close to $106.8K and the 21-week EMA—the bull-market help band—close to $109.2K as natural magnets, with the decrease weekly Bollinger Band sitting around $101K.
He careworn he doesn’t need to see “Bitcoin lose 106.8K” if the cycle stays intact, though a wick into that space to “swipe the liquidity” could be constant with prior resets. He framed $98K as the road that shouldn’t break decisively. “There’s a whole lot of support in that range,” he said. “I’d be pretty shocked if Bitcoin wasn’t able to bounce in there somewhere.”
All Eyes On This fall Seasonality
Kevin tied structural indicators to an specific macro guidelines, arguing that lasting cycle tops and bottoms align with elementary catalysts moderately than charts alone. He cited 2021’s inflation spike and the onset of the Fed’s climbing cycle as the motive force of that cycle’s 55–60% drawdown, the 2017 CME Bitcoin futures launch as a blow-off top catalyst, and the FTX collapse as the ultimate capitulation in 2022 amid weekly bullish divergence.
“There’s always a macro-related reason that correlates with the charts,” he said. By distinction, he sees no such cycle-ending macro set off today: inflation gauges have been “very choppy” but contained; the Fed is widely anticipated to ease into year-end supplied labor softens; and seasonality favors This fall.
He underscored the near-term calendar—core PCE, CPI and labor data in the first half of October—as decisive for risk urge for food. “Sometime in mid-October… we’ll start to have an idea of where this market is really going to go,” he said. “If we get to mid-October and Bitcoin’s holding key support… and we get good macroeconomic data, we get another rate cut… the probabilities favor that Bitcoin will [go higher]—and then you’re in Q4.”
Volatility positioning, he added, argues for a sharp directional transfer once the reset completes. On the weekly Bollinger Band Width, Kevin said BTC has printed record-low readings 3 times this cycle—each in Q3—and each episode started with a draw back break of 18–29% before surging to contemporary highs.
“There is a massive move coming for Bitcoin soon. It has not happened yet,” he said, noting spot volumes have declined since November while bands have tightened to historic extremes. A take a look at of the decrease weekly band close to $101K “is possible,” but not required, in his view; the key is that the broader $107K–$98K hall capabilities as a springboard.
Kevin was equally specific about invalidation and upside triggers. He labeled $125K “a major top for now” and said the market wants weekly and month-to-month closes above that degree to affirm development continuation.
On dominance, he highlighted 59.0% and 60.28% as near-term resistance that might fuel a BTC-led part if reclaimed; in any other case, he expects management to rotate back to altcoins once Bitcoin bases and USDT dominance prints a decrease high. “Stop looking at the altcoins” until those inter-market indicators flip, he suggested, emphasizing persistence, risk management and taking income into resistance.
His backside line combines restraint with opportunism. “Hold $107k to 98K,” he repeated. “Go into October. Get through the first couple of weeks of macroeconomic data… Bitcoin will inevitably find a low on the back of that data and then eventually go higher.” But he warned that if macro arrives benign and “Bitcoin is still deteriorating,” merchants must be prepared to reassess the cycle thesis. Until then, Kevin’s message stays unapologetically unglamorous: respect the seasonal chop, monitor the inter-market tells, and let the higher-time-frame ranges do the speaking. “Being right is the best pat on the back you can get,” he said. “Not just saying things that get you a lot of clicks.”
At press time, BTC traded at $109,607.
Stay up to date with the latest trending crypto news! Visit our web site daily for the freshest Crypto news and content, rigorously curated to keep you informed.
