Bitwise Just Sounded The Alarm—Bitcoin Could | Crypto News
The newest Crypto Market Compass from Bitwise Europe lands like a klaxon: every main gauge of risk urge for food, liquidity and macro momentum is swinging in Bitcoin’s favor, and the firm argues the transfer may “provide a significant tailwind” for the benchmark asset. The examine notes that Bitcoin already rebounded from $101,000 to about $108,000 in the previous week as merchants digested a potent cocktail of cooling inflation, thawing geopolitics and an more and more dovish Federal Reserve stance.
Perfect Storm Brewing For Bitcoin
Bitwise’s proprietary Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has surged to its most optimistic studying since May—“now clearly signal[ing] a bullish sentiment again,” the authors write. Behind that surge lies an unprecedented torrent of capital into exchange-traded merchandise: cumulative web inflows to international Bitcoin ETPs have reached a year-to-date report of $14.3 billion, with 5 consecutive periods final week including one other $2.2 billion—or roughly 20,763 BTC—to the pile. “Cumulative net inflows … signal potential upside opportunity for the price of Bitcoin,” Bitwise says, including that US spot ETFs are now on a 14-day successful streak that may eclipse the 16-day report set shortly after launch in early 2024.
Why are buyers instantly embracing risk? Bitwise factors to what it calls a “decline in macro uncertainty.” July could ship new US commerce accords with Canada, while Washington and Tehran have struck a surprisingly conciliatory tone; former President Donald Trump has even floated lifting sanctions if Iran stays peaceable.
On prime of that, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has tied the timing of a resumption of charge cuts to progress on tariff talks—an alignment that leaves the door open to looser coverage within weeks. The report sums up the temper: “The trifecta of declining geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainty and potential monetary policy stimulus should continue to lift market sentiment and provide a significant tailwind for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.”
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— André Dragosch, PhD
(@Andre_Dragosch) July 1, 2025
On-chain alerts look equally primed. Whale wallets (1,000 BTC or more) withdrew 8,740 BTC from exchanges final week, exchange reserves sank to 2.898 million BTC—just 14.6 % of provide—and web promoting stress on spot venues fell from $2.2 billion to only $0.5 billion.
Derivatives paint a more nuanced image: futures open curiosity slid by 20,000 BTC, and bearish perpetual funding charges trace at lingering short bias, but choices markets show merchants quietly standing down—put-call open curiosity fell to 0.59 while one-month implied volatilities eased toward 38%. Bitwise interprets the mix as “short-term consolidation” in the face of an intact longer-term uptrend.
Traditional markets are also thawing. Bitwise’s Cross-Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) index jumped from 0.31 to 0.49, reinforcing evidence that capital is rotating back into growth-sensitive trades. Some 70% of tracked altcoins beat Bitcoin final week, a breadth thrust traditionally related with early-cycle bull phases.
In its bottom-line evaluation, Bitwise stops short of price targets but leaves little doubt about direction: as long as geopolitical détente, commerce breakthroughs and an accommodative Fed converge with relentless ETF inflows, “a decisive return in global risk appetite” is probably going to keep Bitcoin on an upward trajectory. Should US spot ETFs secure just three more periods of web inflows this week—surpassing their 2024 report—the firm suggests the market could uncover how rapidly a supply-constrained asset can react when the macro wind blows at its back.
At press time, BTC traded at $106,840.
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