Glassnode Says Bitcoin Options Traders Are Still | Crypto News
Bitcoin’s drop back below $78,000 after a rejection close to current local vary highs has left choices merchants positioned cautiously, according to new data shared by Glassnode. The firm said the choices market continues to show compressed volatility expectations, elevated draw back hedging demand, and a gamma construction that may amplify weak spot if BTC strikes toward the mid-$75,000 space.
The transfer follows a failed attempt to maintain close to the higher end of the current local vary. While spot price motion has softened, Glassnode’s thread centered on what derivatives positioning suggests beneath the floor: merchants are still paying up for safety reasonably than aggressively chasing upside.
“BTC broke back below $78K after being rejected near the recent local range highs,” Glassnode wrote. “Here’s what BTC options data shows on positioning, volatility expectations, and sentiment beneath the surface.”
Bitcoin Options Traders Stay Defensive
One of the clearest alerts got here from implied volatility. Glassnode said BTC implied volatility resumed its decline after a short-lived rebound earlier in the week. One-week implied volatility now sits close to 31%, down from 39% earlier this week, while longer-dated implied volatility also moved barely decrease.
The implication is that the market will not be yet pricing a disorderly breakout in either direction, even as draw back hedging stays elevated. “The market is pricing a quieter near term environment again,” Glassnode said.
That calm, however, will not be the same as bullish positioning. Glassnode said 25-delta skew stays “firmly in put territory” after the rejection close to $82,000. One-week skew briefly touched 24% before easing, a signal that places continued to commerce at a strong premium to calls.
“Traders continue to favor downside protection,” the firm wrote.
The same warning appeared in Glassnode’s skew index ratio, which compares upside and draw back implied volatility. Most tenors stay below 1, which means places are richer than calls. The exception is the six-month tenor, where the ratio still reveals a call premium, suggesting that longer-dated upside demand has not disappeared solely.
Nearer-term positioning is more defensive. Glassnode said upside demand stays restricted outdoors longer-dated buildings, while the broader choices floor continues to show buyers looking for safety against additional draw back.
Realized and implied volatility are also diverging. One-month realized volatility has fallen toward 27%, while one-month implied volatility stays nearer to 35%. That leaves the volatility risk premium close to current highs, according to Glassnode.
“Options still price more movement than BTC has recently delivered,” the firm said.
The gamma profile provides another layer of risk. Glassnode recognized a large short gamma cluster close to $75,000, with roughly $3.2 billion of adverse publicity below spot. In choices markets, short gamma positioning can drive sellers to hedge in methods that reinforce spot strikes, doubtlessly growing volatility if price approaches key ranges.
At the same time, optimistic gamma clusters close to $78,000 and $80,000 might act as resistance. That setup leaves Bitcoin boxed between close by upside friction and a decrease zone where draw back motion may speed up.
“This structure can accelerate downside volatility near 75K,” Glassnode wrote.
Flows over the past week also leaned defensive. Put shopping for barely led the tape, representing 25% of premium, while calls purchased also accounted for 25%. Call promoting remained elevated at 25.7% of movement, reinforcing the image of muted upside urge for food.
Glassnode’s conclusion was direct: front-end implied volatility retains compressing, the volatility unfold is widening, skew stays in put territory, only the six-month skew index ratio reveals a call premium, flows lean defensive, and a short gamma acceleration zone sits below spot.
For merchants, the takeaway is less about outright panic than asymmetry. Bitcoin choices aren’t pricing a major volatility growth in the rapid time period, but the market is still paying for draw back safety and displaying restricted confidence in near-term upside. Unless spot can reclaim the close by resistance zones around $78,000 and $80,000, the choices market seems positioned for continued warning.
At press time, BTC traded at $76,744.
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