Bitcoin CVDD Data Points To Possible Bottom Amid | Crypto News
Bitcoin price efficiency in June has gotten off to a rocky start, with costs now down 50% from the market’s all-time high. In the last week alone, the premier cryptocurrency has declined by 16%, forcing the price to around $60,000 for the first time since February.
Notably, the heavy market loss has coincided with the dominant Bitcoin treasury Strategy offloading $2.5 million in BTC to handle its steadiness sheet, despite initial chants of “never sell”. Moreover, the upcoming IPO of Elon Musk’s SpaceX is garnering a lot momentum as a favorable investment at the second. Using related on-chain data, market analyst Rafael, with the X username n3ocortex, has highlighted a market backside vary amid the current persistent downtrend.
Historical Data Supports Potential Dip To $35,000 Before Recovery
After failing to break past the $82,000 barrier in early May, Bitcoin slipped into another corrective wave, ensuing in a 24% price loss to date. In performing an in-depth on-chain analysis, Rafael reveals the asset’s latest decline had pushed costs below the median holder’s breakeven stage for the first time since May 2022. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has also crashed below the 200WMA, exposing the asset to a key, deeper cost-basis ladder. The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), valued at $46,200, represents one of these bases and is usually used to determine long-term market bottoms.
1/ Where is the #Bitcoin backside?$BTC has fallen to $62K, practically 50% below its ATH and down 24% in a month.
Price has now labored through the higher rungs of our pricing framework, transferring into the cluster of valuation ranges where past cycles have discovered their ground.
— Rafael (@n3ocortex) June 5, 2026
According to Rafael, earlier market bottoms have often occurred between the 1.05x-1.18x vary of the CVDD. Based on this historic customary, the possible greater market backside zone for Bitcoin lies between $46,000 and $54,000. On the other hand, a worst-case state of affairs factors to a backside between $35,000 – $40,000. For context, Bitcoin has only entered this deeper market zone on less than 3% of trading days in this market cycle.
Notably, Rafael also factors out that Bitcoin’s cycle drawdowns have turn into progressively shallower, declining from 85% in the first cycle to 77% in the earlier cycle and roughly 50% in the current cycle. While this pattern of market maturation doesn’t get rid of the chance of Bitcoin revisiting a capitulation state of affairs, the weight of the evidence at the moment helps the upper backside vary zone.
Bitcoin Market Overview
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $60,537, reflecting a 4.7% decline in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, daily trading quantity is down 4.69% to $1.21 trillion.
Alongside the CVDD, other important on-chain metrics revealed by Rafael embrace the Realized price ($54,000), Balanced price ($40,000), and the Delta price ($35,000). To re-establish bullish intent for a recovery, the seasoned analyst explains that Bitcoin must reclaim the price zone between $75,000 and $78,000, where the STH value foundation, True Market Mean, and the 200DMA converge.
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