Stellar About To Moon? XLM Price Prediction Calls | Crypto News
A new market-cap–based Elliott Wave examine from impartial chartist Quantum Ascend (@quantum_ascend) argues that Stellar’s native token XLM is positioned for a fifth-wave advance that might raise its valuation roughly 5x from right here. In a video revealed on September 10, the analyst says he prefers to model market cap moderately than the greenback price because XLM’s provide dynamics have periodically distorted spot-price returns.
Stellar (XLM) Set To Explode 400%
“Looking at this… the USD price is only up 12,000% while the market cap chart [is] up 52,000%. So… there is some kind of inflationary pressure on the asset… Stellar, we have to use the market cap chart to measure out exactly where the price is gonna go,” he said, before mapping Fibonacci extensions on the month-to-month and weekly time frames.
From a cycle that he dates to May 2016, the analyst counts 5 waves up into the January 2018 peak, 5 down into March 2020, and then a new, ongoing motive construction that has already printed waves one through 4, with wave 4 “finished in April of this year.”
He highlights an “88% week” in July that he interprets as half of the transition into the terminal wave. The crux of his call comes from overlapping Fibonacci projections: measuring the third-to-fourth-wave drawdown and the bigger 2021 vary, he finds confluence close to the three.618 extension, which locations XLM’s absolutely diluted valuation zone between roughly $60 billion and $71 billion. “My primary there is going to be $60 billion on the market cap… could see a throw over there to that $71 [billion] as well,” he said.
Translating capitalization into a notional price path, Quantum Ascend frames a major price goal around $1.96 per XLM—with a more aggressive extension close to $2.28—while emphasizing adherence to Elliott Wave proportionality: “We’re looking at 400% or a 5X… everyone’s going to be screaming for $2; it’s going to end up at like $1.96… another reason that makes sense is that the third wave cannot be the shortest… I feel really good about that target right there.” The analyst also notes that a speedy, internally impulsive sub-structure is believable for the fifth wave (“could see five waves in this fifth wave here pretty quick”), given the asset’s historical past of condensed strikes.
As of September 11, 2025, XLM modifications fingers around $0.386 with a market capitalization close to $12.28 billion, per CoinMarketCap. A transfer to the analyst’s $60 billion major goal would indicate an appreciation on the order of ~4.9x from today’s valuation, with the exact greenback price contingent on circulating-supply situations at the time of arrival.
Supply mechanics are a key backdrop to his market-cap emphasis. In November 2019, the Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) lowered whole XLM provide to ~50 billion via a 55 billion token burn; since then, no new lumens are created at the protocol degree, although circulating provide has continued to evolve as SDF distributes treasury holdings over time. This helps clarify why long-horizon market-cap curves can diverge from simple price charts, notably when evaluating epochs with different circulating float.
If realized, a major goal close to $1.96 would set a new all-time high for XLM, exceeding the $0.938 peak recorded on January 4, 2018. That historic marker is related because, in Elliott phrases, structurally new highs often validate the completion of a cycle’s terminal wave—though the analyst himself ties affirmation to the unfolding of the interior wave construction moderately than to a single price print.
To be sure, Elliott counting and Fibonacci confluence are interpretive frameworks, not certainties. Macro liquidity, the trail of Bitcoin dominance, and idiosyncratic issuance/distribution by large holders can all alter trajectories and timing. Still, for believers in cycle symmetry, Quantum Ascend’s case is easy: a high-time-timeframe fifth wave for XLM, projected at roughly $60 billion in market cap, equating to about a 400% rally from current ranges—“just shy of $2” on price.
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